Mixed Signals (CONT’D FROM PAGE 14)
the past six months, the lowest since August 2022, with overall capital spending sluggish and below pre-pandem- ic levels due to high interest rates and anticipated slower sales, despite some investment in labor-saving technolo- gy driven by worker shortages. The Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 0.2 percent in June. This follows no change in May and a 0.5 percent increase in April. The PPI for final demand increased 2.6 percent over the year ending in June, the largest rise since March 2023. This is higher than the 2.3 percent gain expected by economists. The increase in June was mainly due to a 0.6 percent rise in final demand services prices, while final demand goods prices fell 0.5 percent. PPI excluding foods, ener- gy and trade services remained steady in June after a 0.2 percent increase in May and rose 3.1 percent over the past year. Core PPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.4 percent in June and is up 3 percent in the past year. The increase in final demand services prices in June was largely because of a 1.9 percent rise in trade services margins. However, transportation and warehousing ser- vices prices dropped 0.4 percent. More than one-quarter of the June increase in services prices was due to a 3.7 percent rise in margins for machinery and vehicle whole- saling, while truck transportation of freight prices declined 1.2 percent. The decrease in final demand goods prices in June
2 percent for the second consecutive month. Food prices rose 0.2 percent in June, with food away from home in- creasing 0.4 percent and food at home rising 0.1 percent. Excluding food and energy, core CPI rose 0.1 percent in June after a 0.2 percent increase in May. In addition to shelter, increases occurred in motor vehicle insurance, household furnishings, medical care, and personal care, while decreases occurred in airline fares, used cars and trucks and communication. The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (NFIB) climbed to 91.5 in June, marking the highest point this year, though it remains below the historical average of 98 for the 30th consecutive month. Inflation is still the top concern, with 21 percent of owners citing it as their primary issue, slightly down from May. Thirty-seven percent of all small business owners re- ported unfilled job openings in June, a five-point drop from May, with skilled worker openings at 31 percent (down six points) and unskilled labor openings at 16 percent (up two points); this hiring difficulty is especially pronounced in the construction, transportation and retail sectors, while the agriculture and finance sectors reported the fewest open- ings. Some 38 percent of owners reported raising com- pensation, with 22 percent planning further increases in the next three months, up four points from May. Fifty-two percent of owners reported capital outlays in
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July 22, 2024
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