Wildfire Loss Cost Modeling For Washington State (2000-2023) Elliot Carlsson, Brian Luquin Angel Project Mentor(s): Yvonne Cheuh, PhD
Wildfire risk in Washington State is escalating, placing significant strain on homeowners’ insurance markets and triggering widespread policy nonrenewal across eastern Washington counties. Despite growing regulatory pressure—including Washington Senate Bill 5928 (2025), which requires insurers to file wildfire risk models with the Insurance Commissioner—no statewide actuarial wildfire loss cost model built on open-source public data has been published for Washington State. This study addresses that gap by developing a two-stage frequency-severity loss cost framework covering all 39 Washington counties for the period 2000–2023. Presentation Type: Oral Presentation (May 20, 9:30am–5:00pm) Keywords: Wildfire Loss Cost, Actuarial Modeling, Random Forest, Burn Probability, Washington State SOURCE Form ID: 101 Interest rates play a fundamental role in shaping financial markets, influencing everything from borrowing costs to investment decisions. This study examines how different types of interest rates and short-rate models impact financial products and economic behavior. We begin by outlining foundational concepts, including simple, compound, and continuous interest; spot rates, forward rates, and yield curves, to establish a mathematical framework for understanding interest rate dynamics. Building on this foundation, the project explores four key short-rate models used in financial mathematics: the Ho–Lee model, Vasicek model, Cox–Ingersoll–Ross (CIR) model, and a two-factor extension. Each model is defined through stochastic differential equations that describe how interest rates evolve over time under uncertainty. Using computational methods, we simulate and compare these models to analyze their behavior, focusing on properties such as mean reversion, volatility, and the possibility of negative interest rates. The results highlight how differing assumptions across models lead to distinct rate dynamics and implications for bond pricing and financial decision-making. By connecting theoretical models to real-world financial concepts, this research aims to improve understanding of how interest rate movements influence financial products and promote greater financial literacy. Presentation Type: Oral Presentation (May 20, 9:30am–5:00pm) Keywords : Mathematics, Finance SOURCE Form ID: 243 How Various Interest Rates Impact Financial Production Cristopher Galvan Zamora † ; Sahadeb Upretee PhD Project Mentor(s): Sahadeb Upretee, PhD
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