LEADERSHIP IN QUESTION
shaped by two drastically new characteristics? The first one of these, uncertainty, is now the norm. A predictable future, at the core of the strategic planning mindset, is no longer a valid assumption. The second one is the acceleration of the pace of change. In the early 1990s, the US army used the acronym VUTCA to characterise such a world: volatile, uncertain, turbulent, complex, ambiguous. As early as 1921, American economist Frank Knight theorised on the difference between risk and uncertainty. Risk is predictable through an assessment of probabilities; uncertainty is not. Later, decision theory, through the use of a Bayesian approach and subjective probabilities, provided a way to fill the gap between the two. More recently the analysis has been refined. Looking at the future, Hugh Courtney in his book, 20/20 Foresight: Crafting Strategy in an Uncertain World , suggested four levels of uncertainty. The first level assumes a clear enough outcome with a single view of the future. The second assumes a limited set of possible futures, of which one will occur, while the third assumes a wider range of possible future outcomes. The last one corresponds to “total uncertainty”. In this instance, even the hypothetical range of possible future outcomes remains unknown. The second characteristic, ie the increasing pace of change, questions the capacity of an organisation to adapt its resources to a rapidly evolving world. Adapting an organisation is a slow process – the speed of change is unlikely to match the pace of its environment. Strategically, this means that an organisation should not attempt to follow its environment but must shape it. A philosophical outlook We must keep in mind that leadership essentially involves guiding individuals whose fundamental nature remains constant, but who continually adapt the ways in which they express that essence.
Basically, people are living beings and as such they tend to want to perpetuate their own existence. To live is essentially to want to live and that motivation remains unchanged, whatever transformation may occur in our society. The role of the leader today is the same as it has always been: if they want to keep their followers motivated, they must effectively respond to their will to live. Leaders must never forget that the intrinsic priority of their followers remains to continue their own existence. They need to understand, therefore, how the means and conditions for this prevailing motivation are evolving in this fast-changing world – and how they can be satisfied. Although we all have the same fundamental motivation, we don’t all have identical ways of fulfilling this basic need. Some of us look for power or money, others prioritise securing their family’s well-being, or want to increase their knowledge or skills, or obtain recognition; some seek to ramp up their lifestyle, yet others are focused on ensuring a long and steady life. All these different needs are ramifications of our basic will to live, but they are also indicative of the specific methods that different personalities will resort to in order to satisfy this basic aspiration. It is the leader’s role to become aware of these different priorities for each one of their followers if they want to optimise their performance and that of the team. Of course, that is where the fast and deep changes presently occurring in the world will challenge leaders. Both the priority needs of their followers and the ways they choose to satisfy them are influenced by how technological and sociological evolutions of all kinds are transforming our way of living both individually and collectively. Leaders will have to stay abreast of these numerous and rapid developments lest they lose touch with their teams and ultimately jeopardise their performance.
BIOGRAPHIES Pierre Casse is the leadership chair at Iedc-Bled School of Management in Slovenia and the author of Leadership without Concessions and Leadership for a New World . Paul George Claudel held the post of director of human resources at several large industrial corporations before becoming a professor, teaching philosophy and leadership at various business schools and universities. Maurice A Saias is a retired university professor; he began by teaching economics, decision theory and statistics and has been involved in executive education in 55 countries across Europe, North America, Latin America, Asia and South Africa
Ambition • ISSUE 3 • 2025 29
Made with FlippingBook - Share PDF online