MANAGEMENT’S DISCUSSION & ANALYSIS
INTRODUCTION
The Management’s Discussion and Analysis (MD&A) highlights the primary factors that affected SaskEnergy’s consolidated financial condition and performance for the three months ending June 30, 2019. Using financial and operating results as its basis, the MD&A describes the Corporation’s past performance and future prospects, enabling readers to view SaskEnergy from the perspective of management. The MD&A is presented as at August 20, 2019, and should be read in conjunction with the Corporation’s condensed consolidated financial statements, which have been prepared in accordance with International Financial Reporting Standard (IAS) 34 Interim Financial Reporting using accounting policies consistent with International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS). For additional information related to the Corporation, refer to SaskEnergy’s 2018-19 Annual Report. The MD&A contains certain forward-looking statements that are subject to inherent uncertainties and risks. Many of these risks are described in the Risk Management and Disclosure section of SaskEnergy’s 2018-19 Annual Report. All forward-looking statements reflect the Corporation’s best estimates and assumptions based on information available at the time the statements were made. However, actual results and events may vary significantly from those included in, contemplated by, or implied by such statements. The volume of natural gas delivered to customers is sensitive to variations in weather, particularly through the prime heating season of November to March. Additionally, changes in market value adjustments may cause significant fluctuations in net income due to the volatility of natural gas prices. Therefore, the condensed consolidated financial results for the first three months of 2019-20 should not be taken as indicative of the performance to be expected for the full year. In order to compare financial performance from period to period, the Corporation uses the following measures: income before unrealized market value adjustments, realized margin on commodity sales, and realized margin on asset optimization sales. Each measure removes the impact of fair value adjustments on financial and derivative instruments and the revaluation of natural gas in storage to the lower of cost and net realizable value. Unrealized market value adjustments vary considerably with market prices of natural gas, drive significant changes in the Corporation’s consolidated net income and may obscure other business factors that are also important to understanding the Corporation’s financial results. The measures referred to above are non-IFRS measures, in that there is no standardized definition, and may not be comparable to similar measures presented by other entities.
INDUSTRY OVERVIEW
SaskEnergy monitors a number of important factors that could influence financial performance.
Natural Gas Prices
The price of natural gas is set in the open market and influenced by a number of factors including production, demand, natural gas storage levels, take-away capacity, and economic conditions. Given the high demand for natural gas to heat homes and businesses during the cold winter months, and the demand for natural gas to produce electricity for air conditioning during the summer months, weather typically has the greatest impact on price in the near term. Due to the high degree of uncertainty associated with weather and Alberta pipeline maintenance/infrastructure issues, natural gas prices in both Alberta and Saskatchewan have been very volatile in recent years. Natural gas market fundamentals remain in a strong supply position relative to demand. The Alberta Energy Company (AECO) weighted average spot price was $1.02 gigajoule (GJ) through the 3 months ending June 30, 2019 compared to $1.54 for the same quarter in 2018. Alberta saw price volatility with spikes upward at AECO due to wild fires that limited market access for some supply, and pipeline maintenance limited takeaway capacity causing periods of significant price declines. Negative spot prices occurred again this quarter and the Alberta infrastructure deficit continues to be evident by the decreased average daily settlement prices at AECO and elevated prices at Empress (hub to eastern gas markets) and TEP (Saskatchewan). AECO natural gas inventories are currently below 2017 and 2018 levels and could cause bullish spot pricing in the event of colder winter weather. Overall the lower priced AECO gas environment is expected to now continue until at least April of 2021 when infrastructure is scheduled to start coming online.
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2019-20 FIRST QUARTER REPORT
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