September 2018 TPIF

Economy

National Economy

State Economy

The US housing market slows as rising prices continue to out- pace wage growth and interest rises. [NY Times; 10/02/2018]  U of M Consumer Sentiment Index nears highest in fourteen years in September. [FRED/Trading Economics; 10/02/2018]  Real annual growth of advanced retail and food service sales exceeds 3.5% in last three of four months. [FRED; 10/02/2018]  The seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) of car sales is expected to fall four percent in September, owing to Hurricane Florence and rising interest rates. [Reuters; 10/02/2018].

Annual employment growth in California of 2.0% exceed- ed the national pace of 1.6% in July, led by gains in the construction sector (4.7%). [Bank of the West; 10/03/2018].  287k workers in California are exposed to China’s initial round of $50bn in retaliatory tariffs. [Marketwatch/BLS; 10/03/2018]  Single family home (SFH) sales SAAR statewide and in River- side County fell 6.6% in August from the same month last year; SFH prices rose 5.5% statewide and 3.3% in Riverside County over the same period. [CAR; 10/03/2018]

Adv. Real Retail and Food Service Sales - Y/Y

U of M: Consumer Sentiment Index

0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0%

101.4

100.1

98.1

103.8

100.7

100.0

90.0

80.0

70.0

60.0

50.0

U3 Unemployment Rate

Case-Shiller Nat’l Home Price Index - Y/Y

US CA Riverside County

7.0%

7.0%

6.5%

6.0%

6.0%

5.5%

4.7%

5.0%

5.0%

4.3%

4.0%

4.5%

3.9%

4.0%

3.0%

Key Economic Indicators

Release Date

Indicator

Actual 4.20% 3.90% 201,000

Consensus

Difference

09/27/2018 09/07/2018 09/07/2018 09/13/2018 09/13/2018 09/06/2018 09/26/2018 09/06/2018 09/27/2018

Real GDP - Q/Q Change - 2Q18 (3rd estimate) Unemployment Rate - Seasonally Adjusted

4.30% 3.80%

-0.10% 0.10%

Non-Farm Payrolls - M/M Change

195,000

6,000

2.70% 2.20%

CPI - Y/Y Change

2.80% 2.30%

-0.10% -0.10%

CPI Ex Food and Energy - Y/Y Change

58.5

Non-Manufacturing Index (> 50 indicates growth)

56.8

1.70

629,000 -0.80%

New Home Sales - SAAR

630,000 -0.70%

-1,000 -0.10% 2.30%

Factory Orders - M/M Change

4.50%

Durable Goods Orders - M/M Change

2.20%

COUNTY OF RIVERSIDE TREASURER-TAX COLLECTOR

3

www.countytreasurer.org

Made with FlippingBook - Online Brochure Maker