hanging on for better rates ahead Sales in King County remained well below typical levels in July, but a small June-to-July increase suggests a market that is holding steady despite tough economic conditions. With the odds of a September rate cut increasing, tough conditions could be easing soon.
function of depressed single-family home listings which, even though they reached their highest level since October 2022, remained 23% below their prior 10-year average. On the other hand, townhome inventory was 59% above average and reached its highest level on record with 949 homes for sale in July. Condo inventory of 1,001 homes was 36% above average and reached its highest level since November 2020. The dynamics between sales and inventory in July culminated in a market with 1.8 months of inventory in July—still tight conditions that have put upward pressure on prices. The median sold price of a single-family home in King County (at $1.05M) was 12% above last year, while the townhome price (at $782,000) and the median price of a condo ($490,000) were both 8% higher than July 2023. As the collective anticipation continues to build for relief in the form of a rate cut, the start of August has already seen some encouraging signs. According to Freddie Mac, the 30-year fixed- rate mortgage had fallen to 6.47% in the week ending in August 8, 2024—its lowest level in more than a year. With many residents of King County having been sidelined, awaiting their downsize, upsize, or first home purchase, and a rate cut due in September if current economic trends continue, the market is positioned for what should be quite an active fall—and August could signal an early start.
Over the past month, we’ve seen inflation edge lower (in both the Consumer Price Index and Personal Consumption Expenditures price index measures) and a weak jobs report that signaled a cooling US economy. This has created mounting pressure for a September rate cut from the Federal Reserve, with the markets expecting as much: as of the writing of this commentary, two-thirds of respondents to the CME FedWatch tool are predicting a cut of 50 basis points at the September 18th meeting, with all remaining respondents expecting a 25 basis point cut. This would certainly assist both home buyers and sellers who continue to battle the “ lock-in effect ”, with mortgage rates at elevated levels not seen since the early 2000s. With respect to last month, the 30-year fixed- rate mortgage hovered between 6.73% and 6.95% according to Freddie Mac. Typically, we begin the rennie review commentary focused on the local elements affecting King County’s housing market, but the macroeconomic environment is top of mind for many residents and played an important role in keeping the
market cool during the region’s hottest month.
On this topic, activity remained cool in July with 2,478 MLS sales coming in 26% below the prior 10-year July average of 3,327. All home types saw considerably suppressed activity led by condos where sales came in 32% below average and followed by single-family homes and townhomes at 26% and 17% below average, respectively. That said, while the market remained cool from a historical perspective, there were some signs of warmth in July with sales increasing 1.9% month-over-month against a typical June-to-July decline of 5%. Furthermore, relative to July 2023, sales were up 14% year-over-year. On the inventory front, active listings continued to build at a notable pace in July, climbing 13% month-over-month to 4,533. This has resulted in the highest inventory levels in King County since September of 2022, but, interestingly enough, inventory levels remain 3% below the 10-year average for July. This deficit is entirely a
Information and statistics derived from Northwest Multiple Listing Service. Copyright © 2024 rennie group of companies. All rights reserved. This material may not be reproduced or distributed, in whole or in part, without the prior written permission of the rennie group of companies. Current as of August 6, 2024. While the information and data contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. rennie group of companies does not assume responsibility or liability for any inaccuracies. The recipient of the information should take steps as the recipient may deem necessary to verify the information prior to placing any reliance upon the information. The information contained within this report should not be used as an opinion of value, such opinions should and can be obtained from a rennie and associates advisor. All information is subject to change and any property may be withdrawn from the market at any time without notice or obligation to the recipient from rennie group of companies. E.&O.E.
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