the focus is on supply: inventory reaches a four-year high Market dynamics have shifted in Greater Victoria’s housing market, due mainly to high interest rates. Decreasing sales and increasing new listings have combined to expand inventory to a level not seen since 2019.
activity to 453 MLS sales throughout Greater Victoria in September—the lowest monthly total since February, and the fourth consecutive monthly decline in sales. And while the typical seasonal pattern is fewer sales in September than in August, last month’s decrease of 14% far outpaces the typical decline of 8%. Additionally, September’s sales count was 29% less than the past-decade average. (For what it’s worth, last month’s sales were actually 9% higher than one year ago—though sales through the latter half of 2022 were historically low.) Don’t be surprised if current conditions extend through the balance of 2023 and into 2024, with situational buyers far outnumbering opportunistic ones and a growing number of owners (including investors) putting their homes on the market. For better or worse, Greater Victoria’s market—like most others across the country—will ultimately be guided by the path of inflation and interest rates for the foreseeable future. On that note, we’re keen to continue to follow the region’s housing market as it evolves in the months and years ahead, and for the opportunity to share our perspectives and insights along the way.
The intelligence division at rennie is excited to introduce this first edition of the Victoria rennie review—a monthly report that presents the latest MLS data for detached homes, townhomes, and condos in the Greater Victoria Area, along with its regions and MLS areas. We’ll produce this report and (if you choose) send it right to your inbox each and every month going forward. As with the Vancouver rennie review, we hope you find it to be a consistently useful tool for gauging how Victoria’s housing market is evolving each month. And just like other markets in British Columbia (and across the country), Greater Victoria’s housing market has been evolving in direct proportion to the Bank of Canada’s unprecedented rate-tightening cycle, with interest rates now at their highest level in two decades. It’s these generationally-high interest rates that are keeping buyers on the sidelines while more sellers put their homes
on the market, and that in turn have caused inventory to expand to its highest level in four years. Let’s get to the numbers: there were 1,216 new MLS listings in September, which was up 23% from August. Not only does this outpace the typical seasonal increase of 9%, it’s 13% higher than one year ago, and 19% more than the past 10-year September average. With new listings up and sales down (we’ll get to the latter in a moment), inventory has—substantially—grown of late, with there being 2,176 homes available for purchase at the end of September. This represents a 14% expansion from August (versus the typical 2% decline), was 18% higher than one year ago, and now sits 1.5% above the past-decade September average. On the demand side of the market, what amounts to prohibitively-high borrowing costs for many would-be buyers restricted
Copyright © 2023 rennie group of companies. All rights reserved. This material may not be reproduced or distributed, in whole or in part, without the prior written permission of the rennie group of companies. Current as of October 13, 2023. All data from the Victoria Real Estate Board & Rennie. While the information and data contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. rennie group of companies does not assume responsibility or liability for any inaccuracies. The recipient of the information shouldtakestepsastherecipientmaydeemnecessarytoverifytheinformationpriortoplacinganyrelianceupontheinformation.Theinformationcontainedwithinthisreportshouldnotbeusedasanopinionofvalue,suchopinionsshouldandcanbeobtainedfromarennieand associates advisor. All information is subject to change and any property may be withdrawn from the market at any time without notice or obligation to the recipient from rennie group of companies. E.&O.E. 3
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