American Consequences - March 2018

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not a level playing field, and valid arguments can be made that the U.S. has lost millions of jobs since China entered the World Trade Organization in 2001. But China is the largest buyer of American sovereign debt. Because the Federal Reserve is normalizing policy and letting the federal balance sheet run off, the U.S. needs China’s buying power to keep rates low so debt payments don’t skyrocket. Interest rates will move higher if the Chinese change their buying habits! The losers – companies that use steel and aluminum for production purposes – are autos, defense, and machinery. But the worry extends to retaliatory moves. Could Asian competition jack tariffs on phones, laptops, and flatscreens? Higher prices for goods we take for granted could be the catalyst for inflation, and equity investors would vote with their feet and hit the sell button. TARIFFS CHANGE THE MATH ON STOCKS.

March 21 The Federal Reserve interest rate decision. This will be Powell’s first meeting as Fed Chair. Expectations will be for a 25 basis-point hike. March 23 New home sales. Home sales (along with homebuilding companies) have declined of late due to the substantial rise in interest rates. March 28 Fourth-quarter GDP results. 2.5% was the last print. Have rising interest rates taken a toll on the economy or are these rates a positive sign of global growth? April 6 Payroll numbers. The February print blew away expectations by more than 100,000 jobs. Keep an eye on market reaction on a similar report for March.

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American Consequences 13

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