Fiscal Year 2027-2032 Financial Forecast Page Two SUMMARY
This forecast includes the Fall 2025 Traffic and Revenue (T&R) Forecast Update, the Draft FY 2027 - 2032 CTP, the Final FY 2027 Operating Budget, and the approved change in the MDTA’s unencumbered cash target. The forecast also incorporates intermediate-term borrowings to align with anticipated federal reimbursement cashflows for the Key Bridge Rebuild. The summary table below shows the MDTA’s adherence to its financial goals and requirements throughout the forecast period. (see financial forecast attachment) Financial Metrics Requirement Current Forecast Period (FY 2027 – 2032) Rate Covenant ≥ 1.0 Requirement met only through FY 2030; low of 0.8-times in FY 2032 Debt Service Coverage ≥ 2.0 Requirement met only through FY 2028; low of 1.0-times in FY 2032 Unencumbered Cash ≥ Next FY Op. Bud Requirement met only through FY 2031 Debt Outstanding ≤ $5.0B Bonding limit exceeded in FY 2031 ANALYSIS The key component comparisons between the current 6-year forecast and November 2025 forecast are: • Total revenue: Total revenue increases by a net $8.3 million throughout the FY 2027 – 2032 forecast period. The increase is attributed to a $16.3 million increase in investment income and other revenue, primarily due higher modeled cash balances. This increase is offset by a $8.0 million reduction in anticipated reimbursable revenue for MDTA Police expenses throughout the forecast period. The reduction in reimbursable law enforcement revenue correlates to a reduction in MDTA Police law enforcement services for the Maryland Port Administration and the Maryland Aviation Administration throughout the forecast period. • Operating budget expenses: Operating budget expenses increase by $67.5 million throughout the 6-year forecast period. The increase is attributed to $10.2 million increase in the final FY 2027 operating budget that is compounded by the assumed growth rate factor in future years. • Capital budget expenses: Capital budget expenses increase by $1.1 billion compared to the Draft FY 2027-2032 CTP. A portion of the increase ($413.8 million) is attributed to the anticipated rollover of unexpended funds from FY 2026 into subsequent fiscal years. The remainder of the $657.0 million increase is primarily due to the inclusion of multiple new system preservation and improvement projects; cost changes and cashflow adjustments for active projects; and an increase in the allocated and unallocated reserves.
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