Fiscal Year 2027-2032 Financial Forecast Page Four
Forecast Model Inputs • Traffic and Toll Revenue Forecast: CDM Smith Fall 2025 Update Report • Draft FY 2027 – 2032 CTP • FY 2027 Final Operating Budget with adjusted growth rate factor in FY 2028 and FY 2029 for vehicle purchases • Assumed federal fund reimbursement timeframe downwardly adjusted to six months based on current timing for reimbursement approvals • Beginning in FY 2027, modeled bond interest rate upwardly adjusted to prevailing long-term financing rates of 4.15% Evaluation Criteria Adherence to MDTA goals and policies: • Unrestricted Cash ≥ Next Fiscal Year’s Operating Budget (excluding MDTA Police reimbursable expenses and extraordinary one-time expenses) • Debt Service Coverage ≥ 2.0 • Rate covenant ratio ≥ 1.0 sum of 120% debt service plus deposits to M&O Reserve • Debt outstanding ≤ $5 billion (Debt limit increase or higher revenues are needed prior to FY 2031) • Forecast tests the need for potential future toll increases. (Systemwide toll increases are needed beginning in FY 2029 due to inadequate Debt Service Coverage)
ATTACHMENT
• Financial Forecast
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