A Forum for Grievance, Influence, and Mobilization toward Violence: A Thematic Analysis of the Role of On- line Forums in the January 6, 2021 Attack Michael H. Becker, American University [Co-author: Daren Fisher (Hampton University)] Abstract: Online forums were instrumental in the planning, coordinating, and execution of the January 6th attack on the U.S. Capitol Building. These forums provided anonymous users with an outlet to voice their grievances, and can magnify and reinforce motivations for violence. Beyond these impacts, the content of online forums can be leveraged to test key theoretical hypotheses and deepen the empirical understanding of how violent political beliefs do and do not shift individuals toward participation in terrorism. Recent research has illustrated the impact of deterrence and criminal sanctuary messages from political elites on subsequent terrorism. We apply these theoretical frameworks to examine the specific linguistic strategies employed by users on a forum identified as instrumental by the January 6th Committee in the planning and perpetration of the January 6th attack. This study provides a thematic analysis of more than 900,000 prospectively collected posts on thedonald.win between date/x and date/y that were precursors to the January 6th attack. We conclude with an investigation of shifts in how users responded to cues of deterrence and sanctuary across the period prior to the 2020 presidential election, between the election and January 6th, 2021, and following the January 6th attack.
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