Looking Ahead: Fundamentally, the industry enters the new crop year from a solid position. The 470.7-million-pound carry-in (of which only 447.1 million pounds is estimated as edible) is down from prior year and confirms the tightness in supply from one crop to the next. Downward pressure on crop potential and overall supply and demand fundamentals continue to support a stable-to-firm market outlook. Export demand remains healthy with the coming weeks expected to provide clarity on crop size, kernel sizing and the degree to which rapidly appreciated pricing can be absorbed by end markets. SHIPMENTS India: India was the clear standout in August, receiving 44.3 million pounds, up approximately 170% from 16.4 million pounds last year. The increase reflects stronger replenishment ahead of the festival season and a normalization from the unusually low August 2025 shipment level. The magnitude of the increase is notable given elevated pricing and confirms India’s continued importance as the primary outlet for California inshell almonds. Local consumption will become increasingly important ahead of festival season as buyers will begin to replenish stocks that dwindled at the end of the 2025 crop year. China/Hong Kong/SE Asia: August shipment data highlights an ongoing shift in Asian trade flows. Vietnam posted a 10% increase versus last year, while Thailand (+84%) and Malaysia (+53%) recorded significant gains, reflecting their growing roles as processing and transshipment hubs serving Chinese demand. Direct shipments to China/Hong Kong, however, declined 52% year over year. Looking ahead, optimism remains that the September 24th meeting between President Trump and President Xi could lead to progress on trade and tariff issues, potentially paving the way for increased direct shipments into mainland China ahead of Chinese New Year. Europe: Europe posted another constructive month, with total shipments reaching 45.8 million pounds, up approximately 6% year over year. Western Europe increased 8%, led by Italy, Germany, and the United
Kingdom. Despite elevated pricing, European buyers continue to seek coverage, although purchasing remains disciplined and increasingly focused on shorter shipment windows. Middle East: Middle East shipments totaled 14.2 million pounds, down 17% from last year. Performance varied considerably by destination. Turkey increased 113% to 7.0 million pounds, while the UAE declined 63% to 4.3 million pounds and Saudi Arabia declined 54%. The shifting regional mix, as highlighted by a 265% increase into Pakistan, continues to reflect changing trade routes, inventory positions and geopolitical/logistical disruption rather than a uniform change in underlying consumption and overall demand levels. Domestic: August domestic shipments totaled 46.8 million pounds, down 3.3% year over year. While this may not have been the start to the year the industry had hoped for, the improvement in shipment performance over the last six months provides optimism that the market has stabilized. As prices rose over the last month, purchasing activity slowed and shifted to closer, strategic locations. This cautious approach is expected to continue. Looking ahead, domestic demand is expected to remain steady, with a pipeline of commitments providing support for shipments in the next few months.
31
SEPTEMBER–OCTOBER 2026
Made with FlippingBook - Online Brochure Maker