RENNIE OUTLOOK 2021
housing: calmer waters in 2021 after a turbulent 2020
Following a robust conclusion to 2019, we had expected that the housing market in the Vancouver Region would build on that established momentum; with that in mind, we predicted that MLS sales would approach 50,000 in 2020. We believed this would be predicated on a continued tight labour market, steadily rising job counts and wages, and strong population growth. Ultimately, and serendipitously, the region did achieve 49,900 sales in 2020—though the path taken to reach this year-end total was anything but predictable, thanks to the pandemic. As we flip the calendar from 2020 to 2021 on the heels of 5 months of record, or near-record, monthly sales counts in the region, a strong foundation has been laid for more consistent market activity in the year ahead.
OUR 2021 OUTLOOK Increased population and employment growth (market tailwinds), offset by slightly elevated interest rates and the exhaustion of 2020’s remaining pent-up housing demand (headwinds), will see the Vancouver Region tally 50,000 MLS sales in 2021—4% more than the past-decade average. This would comprise the sale of 20,000 houses, 11,000 townhomes, and 19,000 condos.
The pre-sale market in Metro Vancouver proved to be resilient in the face of uncertain economic circumstances in 2020. Before and after a sluggish Q2—due to the introduction of strict social distancing rules—the regional pre-sale market performed well from a sales perspective. Strong levels of activity towards the end of Q2 and through the second half of the year reflected the agility of both buyers and developers as they navigated augmented pre-sale processes. Overall, the region tallied slightly more than 11,000 pre-sales in 2020. While this was 18% lower than the past-decade average (of 13,500 pre-sales), it was 44% more than the 7,722 pre-sales in 2019.
OUR 2021 OUTLOOK Following a surprisingly positive pre-sale market performance in 2020 that flew under the radar of many, buyers are expected to purchase between 13,500- 15,000 pre-sale homes in Metro Vancouver in 2021. This would comprise a minimum of 7,500 concrete homes and 6,000 woodframe homes/townhomes.
Copyright © 2021 rennie group of companies. All rights reserved. This material may not be reproduced or distributed, in whole or in part, without the prior written permission of the rennie group of companies. Current as of January 18, 2021. All data from Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver and Fraser Valley & Rennie. While the information and data contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. rennie group of companies does not assume responsibility or liability for any inaccuracies. The recipient of the information should take steps as the recipient may deem necessary to verify the information prior to placing any reliance upon the information. The information contained within this report should not be used as an opinion of value, such opinions should and can be obtained from a rennie and associates advisor. All information is subject to change and any property may be withdrawn from the market at any time without notice or obligation to the recipient from rennie group of companies. E.&O.E. 3
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