Latent Demand Report

Leisure DB’s latent demand reports have been trusted by operators, consultants and agencies alike for 20+ years – but why? Read more for the answer...

LATENT DEMAND ACCURATELY PREDICTING POTENTIAL

SAMPLE CLUB

03 05 06 07 08 20 23 24 27 28 29 30 31 32 38

ACCURATELY PREDICTING POTENTIAL

VITAL STATISTICS

CREATING A CATCHMENT

THE POWER OF MOSAIC

WHO’S IN YOUR CATCHMENT?

WHERE EXACTLY ARE THEY?

CATCHMENT COMPETITION

YOUR LATENT DEMAND FORECAST

GOT EXISTING MEMBER DATA?

INDUSTRY INSIGHTS

ABOUT LEISURE DB

OTHER LEISURE DB PRODUCTS

LEISURE DB PARTNERS

APPENDIX I – ABOUT MOSAIC

APPENDIX II – YOUR AGE REPORT

SAMPLE CLUB

ACCURATELY PREDICTING POTENTIAL Leisure DB’s latent demand reports have been trusted by operators, consultants and agencies alike for 20+ years – but why? We could talk about the unparalleled insights these reports provide into local demographics. We could talk about their detailed competitor analysis. We could talk about how they help operators understand exactly where the opportunities lie, and how significant each of those opportunities is. But where most people start is with the latent demand number: the number of members we estimate your club or centre can realistically achieve. It’s a number that draws in the aforementioned demographics and local competition, and that reflects the make-up of your existing or proposed club or centre: its size, price point, facilities and many other factors. And it’s very precise: change one of these variables, change your intended target audience, and the latent demand number changes with it. Behind this sits a model powered by extensive, benchmarkable data from comparable sites, as well as competitor site analysis and the full weight of Experian’s Mosaic consumer classification platform, not to mention our own 20+ years’ experience in forecasting demand.

“Our robust model can accurately predict the impact of each new variable on latent demand”

Crucially, Leisure DB’s proprietary model is based on profiling millions of fitness members, mapping the customers of each gym individually to understand who they are, how far they travel and so on. We already have member data for 1,300 sites, creating an incredibly robust model that’s able to predict the impact of each new variable – each new filter applied – on latent demand. And the model continually adjusts and updates, too, as new member data is incorporated. Add to this the 450+ data variables that inform Mosaic’s classifications (see appendix) and you can begin to understand why our forecasts are so accurate. It means those looking to open a new facility can make decisions with confidence. That might mean immediately pressing ‘go’ on the next stage of development. It might mean refining the product, including equipment and layout, to meet the needs of the specific population groups most likely to use it. It might mean looking for a new location.

LATENT DEMAND REPORT

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It might even mean not going ahead if expected member numbers are too low to justify the investment – but crucially, it means making that decision at an early enough stage that funds aren’t wasted, without ever wondering if you missed a big opportunity. Meanwhile, for those already operating a facility and looking to maximise membership, our latent demand reports provide insight into exactly who the potential customers are within the catchment area, and how numerous. In turn, marketing can be fine-tuned to capture these opportunities. It’s why operators, agencies and consultancies the length and breadth of the UK rely on these reports to inform their decisions. “Leisure DB’s latent demand reports provide the most comprehensive and accurate data out there. The results have been proven in operation at many new community sports developments in the UK. We would not do a detailed feasibility or business case without them, and I can’t recommend them highly enough to anyone seeking leading industry data to support significant investment decisions.” Tom Pinnington, The Sports Consultancy “We have gone to Leisure DB for latent demand reports for over 13 years now, trusting them to provide us with the most comprehensive, accurate data available. The reports are clear, easily understandable by our clients, familiar to operators who use them in their own tenders, and good value. Last but not least, the Leisure DB team is incredibly knowledgeable and helpful, and their

customer service second to none.” Kevin Godden, FMG Consulting

“The source of market insight in the UK fitness industry. The level of detail delivered enables me and my clients to make accurate projections around membership numbers and revenue. This is crucial in understanding the viability of any club, and what the pricing and marketing strategy should be. A very knowledgeable, professional business and highly recommended.” Andy Kidd, Elios Marketing

LATENT DEMAND REPORT

SAMPLE CLUB

VITAL STATISTICS SAMPLE CLUB

POPULATION (15+) 51,293

CATCHMENT 2-MILE RADIUS

LATENT DEMAND 2,016

DOMINANT MOSAIC GROUP 26 %

17 %

DOMINANT MOSAIC TYPE

I36

I37

I38

I39

I36

I37

I38

I39

Families with limited resources who budget to make ends meet Family Basics

Solid Economy I36

7.24% 8.73% Stable families with children, renting higher value homes from social landlords

1.79%

Advert Response Channel

Who We Are

Household income

Age

36–45

£20k–£29,999

36–45

£20k–£29,999

112

103

160 29.9%

160 31.3%

144 26.8%

204 40.0%

Number of children

Household composition

115

103

Family + other adults

Key Features

Household Technology Key Features

Household Technology

151 24.3%

253 31.5%

138 22.3%

203 25.3%

Games consoles Internet via smartphone Low affluence Low discretionary income Council/HA tenants Families with children

School-age children Council/HA tenants

Residency type

Tenure

High Single trip travel insurance Standard current/savings account Low discretionary income No qualifications

Terraced

Council/HA

Medium

292 51.5%

198 49.9%

513 90.5%

177 44.6%

Mosaic UK

2023 © Experian L www.se

KEY COMPETITORS

NUMBER OF GYMS IN THE CATCHMENT AREA 8

> Harlow LeisureZone > JD Gyms > PureGym

LATENT DEMAND REPORT

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CREATING A CATCHMENT We have set out to assess the latent demand for fitness at a proposed new leisure facility in Harlow. There are potential plans to build a brand new leisure facility which would include fitness as well as a cinema, tenpin bowling and restaurants. The fitness element would include a c. 80-station gym, group exercise and cycle studios, indoor swimming pool and a small sports hall. When estimating latent demand for any facility, we start with the catchment area. From how far away will people be willing to travel to use your facility, and how large is the population within that catchment? Establishing this is an important first step in estimating latent demand. For your project, we’ve concentrated on the population that lives within a two-mile radius of the facility. We believe this is realistic based on:

■ The number of people living in the catchment

The competing gyms in the catchment

■

■ The geographical area this catchment covers This two-mile radius catchment area is shown on the Mosaic and competition maps (see pages 20 and 21). When estimating a catchment area, we run various options through the model to determine what’s realistic based on a range of factors, before also applying our 20+ years of experience to factor in other variables that can influence catchments. Because this isn’t just about drive time, or even population clusters and where your competitors are. It’s about what you’re offering, and for what price. And it’s about geography, natural boundaries and man-made features. Located just to one side of a river, but without a convenient, nearby bridge to cross it? You can pretty much rule out any custom from the other side of the river, however close they may be as the crow flies. Railway lines can have a similar effect. Identified a large population density within a 10-minute drive time, but with that short drive time facilitated by a motorway? Our experience suggests that won’t work: that in this case, it’s about distance, not just journey time. People tend not to go on the motorway to get to a gym. On the flip side, if valleys and mountains are involved, you’re very much looking at drive time, however close things might look as the crow flies.

LATENT DEMAND REPORT

SAMPLE CLUB

THE POWER OF MOSAIC Once your catchment area has been defined, it’s time to understand the make-up of its population. This is where Mosaic comes in. Based on 450+ data variables, Experian’s Mosaic consumer classification platform encompasses 15 groups (see appendix) that break down into 66 types. For example, within Group A sit four types, all sharing enough characteristics to group them together – in this case, high income – but differing in other ways, such as age, having children and so on. Mosaic is designed to present a clear picture of who lives where in the UK, with groups offering an overall feel of a catchment, then types going into more detail. Indeed, thanks to Experian, every UK postcode can be classified by dominant Mosaic type(s). In turn, that means an accurate understanding of the demographics and characteristics of the population in any area of the UK – age, life stage, affluence, home ownership, types of property, whether they have children, how they holiday, shop, consume social media… THE ACCURACY OF TYPES Leisure DB’s latent demand reports work at the detailed level of Mosaic types, with our model not only showing dominant types, but all types within the catchment indexed to show their comparative weighting and importance. Using types is what drives the accuracy and value of our reports, as it really allows us to dive into the specifics. In our model, each Mosaic type has its own predicted penetration rate for your facility or planned facility – and those penetration rates are calculated using our peerless database of facilities and members, with a range of filters applied to ensure we’re comparing like with like. Does your facility, or planned facility, have a pool? What about a group exercise studio? How big is the gym? In what part of the UK is it? What’s the price point? What are the population numbers and demographic clusters in the catchment area? Each filter applied narrows and refines the set of facilities against which we benchmark yours, so your latent demand forecast is based only on learnings from relevant – i.e. highly similar – sites. Each filter applied also changes the likely demand, and therefore penetration rate, for each Mosaic type, because each new filter will of course impact the

relevance and appeal of your facility for each prospect type. The result is the most accurate possible forecast of demand.

LATENT DEMAND REPORT

SAMPLE CLUB

WHO’S IN YOUR CATCHMENT? The Sample Club is located just off Second Avenue, to the east of Harlow town centre. The M11 motorway is just under two miles to the east. The train station is just over a mile to the north. Almost 33,000 people live within a mile of the site and this increases to 66,000 within two miles. In estimating the latent demand for fitness, as established, we have concentrated on a two-mile radius around the Sample Club. This area is home to 66,187 people, of which 51,293 are adults aged 15+. This forms the basis of our latent demand report, but we have, as always, made allowance for a proportion of members who will travel further. A two-mile radius around the Sample Club includes all those living in Harlow including Brays Grove, Stewards, Passmores, Netteswell, Mark Hall and Tylerscross. It does not reach any of the Newhall or Church Langley populations, to the east. But who are these individuals? What is the make-up of the catchment population? This is where we once again turn to Mosaic, creating a Mosaic profile report for your facility. Please note, your Mosaic profile report is based on all adults aged 15+ living in the catchment. It is not influenced by, or reflective of, your offering, model or target audience. The idea is to show, at a glance, how the population profile in your catchment compares to the average population profile across the whole of England, and with it offer some insight into the important nuances that exist within your catchment population.

LATENT DEMAND REPORT

SAMPLE CLUB

YOUR MOSAIC GROUPS First, let’s look at the level of Mosaic groups for a broad overview of your catchment.

In the below chart, the first column lists the Mosaic groups, with subsequent columns showing the number of people in your catchment who fall into each group, and the % of your catchment population this represents. We then share the same figures for England as a whole, in order to finally show how your catchment indexes against the national norm; anything over 100 is above average. Montages of the dominant Mosaic groups in your catchment are shown on pages 11 - 12. MOSAIC GROUP PROFILE OF CATCHMENT POPULATION Sample Club

Target:

Adult (15+) population within two-mile catchment area

Base:

Adult (15+) population in England

Mosaic Group

Target

% Base % Pen Index

100

150

200

A City Prosperity B Prestige Positions C Country Living D Rural Reality E Senior Security F Suburban Stability G Domestic Success H Aspiring Homemakers

0.0 2,448,596 5.2 0.0

1,098

2.1 3,385,117 7.2 0.0 30 0.7 3,149,063 6.7 0.0 11

363

0.1 2,649,901 5.6 0.0

1,912 2,825 2,514

3.7 3,572,192 7.6 0.1 49 5.5 2,701,837 5.8 0.1 96 4.9 4,133,147 8.8 0.1 56

8,206 16.0 5,102,065 10.9 0.2 147 13,132 25.6 3,949,093 8.4 0.3 304

I Family Basics

J Transient Renters K Municipal Tenants

1,879 1,950 4,824

3.7 2,435,844 5.2 0.1 71 3.8 2,478,117 5.3 0.1 72 9.4 2,471,620 5.3 0.2 179

L Vintage Value

M Modest Traditions N Urban Cohesion

9,668 18.8 1,705,898 3.6 0.6 519

289

0.6 2,791,840 5.9 0.0

O Rental Hubs

2,565

5.0 3,984,428 8.5 0.1 59

Total

51,293 - -

46,958,758 - -

0.11 - -

LATENT DEMAND REPORT

SAMPLE CLUB

WHAT DOES THIS TELL US? In the case of the Sample Club, we can see the prominent Mosaic group in the area is I (Family Basics) ; it accounts for more than a quarter (25.6%) of all adults aged 15+ in your catchment, which is more than three times the national average. Family Basics are households bringing up children, who have limited incomes and budget carefully. Most adults are in their 20s, 30s and 40s. Group M (Modest Traditions) makes up almost 19% of your catchment population, which is more than five times the national average. These are older homeowners, often in their 50s and 60s, who own affordably priced houses. These households include couples whose children have left home, parents supporting adult children with accommodation, and mature singles who are living alone. A good number of these older adults still work full-time. Group H (Aspiring Homemakers) makes up a further 16% of your catchment population and this is, again, above average. These are young people in their 20s and 30s who are putting down roots in pleasant homes. Many have moved in recently, others have lived there for a few years and are beginning to settle. Households are a mix of young couples and single people. Around two- thirds have started families and have young children. The only other Mosaic group represented at above average levels (i.e. with an index score above 100) is L (Vintage Value) . It makes up 9.4% of your catchment population, compared to a national average of just 5.3%. These are retired people aged 65+ who live in accommodation that is modestly sized. The majority now live alone.

LATENT DEMAND REPORT

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Mosaic provides a snapshot of information about each group, which can be useful in understanding local needs and nuances.

H30

H31

H32

H33

H34

H35

Younger households settling down in housing priced within their means Aspiring Homemakers

Advert Resp

Who We Are

Household income

Age

26–35

£40k–£49,999

191 36.9%

192 23.5%

Number of children

Household composition

122

Pseudo family

Key Features

Household T

209 22.6%

267 36.8%

Order from takeaways Texts and photos on smartphone Internet via smartphone High outstanding mortgages 3 bedrooms Families with young children

Residency type

Tenure

Semi-detached

Owned

121 77.7%

157 40.8%

I36

I37

I38

I39

Families with limited resources who budget to make ends meet Family Basics

Mosaic UK

Advert Resp

Who We Are

Household income

Age

36–45

£20k–£29,999

112

160 29.9%

160 31.3%

Number of children

Household composition

Family + other adults

Key Features

Household T

151 24.3%

253 31.5%

Games consoles Internet via smartphone Low affluence Low discretionary income Council/HA tenants Families with children

Residency type

Tenure

Terraced

Council/HA

292 51.5%

198 49.9%

LATENT DEMAND REPORT

SAMPLE CLUB

L49

L50

L51

L52

L53

Elderly people with limited pension income, mostly living alone Vintage Value

Advert Resp

Who We Are

Household income

Age

66+

<£15k

408 75.4%

466 76.7%

Number of children

Household composition

Single

No children

Key Features

Household T

190 75.4%

144 99.8%

Fuel and water poverty Very low-tech households Low discretionary income No qualifications Council/HA tenants Retired singles

Residency type

Tenure

Flat

Council/HA

318 56.2%

204 47.2%

M54

M55

M56

Modest Traditions M

Mature homeowners of value homes enjoying stable lifestyles

Mosaic UK

Advert Resp

Who We Are

Household income

Age

56–65

£20k–£29,999

227 34.6%

197 38.5%

Number of children

Household composition

101

Family + other adults

No children

Key Features

Household T

165 26.7%

142 98.3%

Low discretionary income Established in community No children Homeowners

Residency type

Tenure

Terraced

Owned

Solar panels Watch TV

133 85.3%

198 50.0%

LATENT DEMAND REPORT

SAMPLE CLUB

YOUR MOSAIC TYPES But as we say, it’s Mosaic types that our latent demand reports really focus on. So, what does your catchment look like at this more detailed level? As previously, after listing the Mosaic types – all 66 of them – the following chart shows the number of people of that type within your catchment, the % of your catchment population that represents, the same two figures for England as a whole, and finally how your catchment therefore indexes against the national norm. As with the groups, any type indexing over 100 means they’re over-represented in your catchment compared to national norms; when you hit an index of 200+, you really want to sit up and take notice! We do, however, suggest you take account of total numbers in your catchment, as well as the index. Our advice: first look for any types weighing in at over 5% of your catchment population. Then look at the index, to see if this means the type is over-represented in your area. If both numbers are significant, you definitely need to know about these people! MOSAIC TYPE PROFILE OF CATCHMENT POPULATION Sample Club

Target:

Adult (15+) population within two-mile catchment area

Base:

Adult (15+) population in England

Mosaic Type Mosaic Type

Target Target

% Base % Pen Index

100

150

200

A01 World-Class Wealth A02 Uptown Elite A03 Penthouse Chic A04 Metro High-Flyers B05 Premium Fortunes B08 Bank of Mum and Dad B09 Empty-Nest Adventure C10 Wealthy Landowners C12 Scattered Homesteads C13 Village Retirement B06 Diamond Days B07 Alpha Families C11 Rural Vogue D14 Satellite Settlers D15 Local Focus D16 Outlying Seniors D17 Far-Flung Outposts E18 Legacy Elders E19 Bungalow Haven E20 Classic Grandparents F22 Boomerang Boarders F23 Family Ties F24 Fledgling Free F25 Dependable Me E21 Solo Retirees G26 Cafés and Catchments G27 Thriving Independence G29 Mid-Career Convention H30 Primary Ambitions G28 Modern Parents H32 First-Rung Futures H33 Contemporary Starts H34 New Foundations

0 0 0 0

0.0 317,582 0.7 0.0 797,344 1.7 0.0 369,303 0.8 0.0 964,367 2.1 0.1 652,180 1.4 0.2 551,090 1.2 0.1 795,854 1.7 1.3 527,724 1.1 0.5 858,269 1.8 0.6 976,793 2.1 0.0 577,822 1.2 0.0 626,898 1.3 0.1 967,550 2.1 0.1 1,213,277 2.6 0.0 742,509 1.6 0.0 682,357 1.5

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0 0 0 0 4

26 89 69

656 258 327

0.1 114

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1

28 31

8 0

1 0 3 5 0 0 0

28 68

0 0 0

0.0

11,758

0.0

156

0.3 740,893 1.6 0.0 1,439,107 3.1 1.3 804,660 1.7 2.1 587,532 1.3 1.2 631,658 1.3 3.6 1,056,722 2.3 0.1 557,428 1.2 0.6 456,029 1.0 0.1 1,222,792 2.6 1.0 915,166 1.9 3.5 826,104 1.8 0.3 1,169,085 2.5 10.7 1,440,285 3.1 1.2 1,285,520 2.7 0.0 627,698 1.3 3.3 1,102,576 2.3 0.3 192,865 0.4

655

1,101

0.2 172

617

0.1

1,852

0.2 160

0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1

10 59

293

525

1,798

0.2 199

165

0.0

5,487

0.4 349

continued overleaf

LATENT DEMAND REPORT H31 Affordable Fringe

641

0.0 0.0

1,680

0.2 139

165

0.1

B08 Bank of Mum and Dad B09 Empty-Nest Adventure C10 Wealthy Landowners C12 Scattered Homesteads C13 Village Retirement C11 Rural Vogue D14 Satellite Settlers D15 Local Focus D16 Outlying Seniors D17 Far-Flung Outposts E18 Legacy Elders E19 Bungalow Haven E20 Classic Grandparents

656 258 327

1.3 527,724 1.1 0.5 858,269 1.8 0.6 976,793 2.1 0.0 577,822 1.2 0.0 626,898 1.3 0.1 967,550 2.1 0.1 1,213,277 2.6 0.0 742,509 1.6 0.0 682,357 1.5

0.1 114

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1

28 31

8 0

1 0 3 5 0 0 0

SAMPLE CLUB

28 68

0 0 0

0.0

11,758

0.0

156

0.3 740,893 1.6 0.0 1,439,107 3.1 1.3 804,660 1.7 2.1 587,532 1.3

655

E21 Solo Retirees

1,101

0.2 172

F22 Boomerang Boarders MOSAIC TYPE PROFILE OF CATCHMENT POPULATION (continued) Sample Club 617 1.2 631,658 1.3 3.6 1,056,722 2.3 0.1 89 1,852 0.2 160

Target: F25 Dependable Me F23 Family Ties F24 Fledgling Free

0.1 557,428 1.2

0.0

10 59

Adult (15+) population within two-mile catchment area 0.6 456,029 1.0 0.1 293

Base: G26 Cafés and Catchments G27 Thriving Independence G28 Modern Parents Mosaic Type G29 Mid-Career Convention H30 Primary Ambitions H31 Affordable Fringe H32 First-Rung Futures H33 Contemporary Starts H34 New Foundations I36 Solid Economy I37 Budget Generations I38 Economical Families I39 Families on a Budget H35 Flying Solo J41 Youthful Endeavours J42 Midlife Renters J43 Renting Rooms K44 Inner City Stalwarts K46 High Rise Residents K47 Single Essentials K48 Mature Workers J40 Value Rentals K45 City Diversity L51 Retirement Communities L52 Estate Veterans L53 Seasoned Survivors M54 Down-to-Earth Owners M55 Back with the Folks L49 Flatlet Seniors L50 Pocket Pensions

0.1 1,222,792 2.6 1.0 915,166 1.9

0.0 0.1

Adult (15+) population in England

525

1,798 Target 165

3.5 826,104 1.8 0.3 1,169,085 2.5 % Base % Pen Index 0.2 199 0.0 13

5,487

10.7 1,440,285 3.1 1.2 1,285,520 2.7 0.0 627,698 1.3 3.3 1,102,576 2.3 0.3 192,865 0.4 0.4 453,121 1.0 17.4 1,097,154 2.3 4.3 719,561 1.5 2.2 947,589 2.0 1.7 1,184,789 2.5 0.0 483,747 1.0 1.8 296,588 0.6 1.9 962,694 2.1 0.0 692,815 1.5 0.2 479,823 1.0 0.2 663,682 1.4 0.0 164,588 0.4 3.4 487,192 1.0 0.0 682,832 1.5 0.2 396,641 0.8 2.0 600,480 1.3 0.2 559,235 1.2 5.2 471,410 1.0 1.8 443,854 0.9 0.5 452,600 1.0 15.3 689,882 1.5 3.0 563,416 1.2 0.5 762,805 1.6 0.0 879,131 1.9 0.0 594,565 1.3 0.1 555,339 1.2 0.9 879,671 1.9 0.1 417,394 0.9 1.3 811,910 1.7 2.8 754,498 1.6 0.0 481,434 1.0 0.0 639,521 1.4

0.4 349

641

0.0 0.0

1,680

0.2 139

165 224

0.1 0.0

78 45

8,918 2,196 1,125

0.8 744 0.3 279 0.1 109

893

0.1 0.0

919 960

0.3 284

0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

17 14

102

1,757

0.4 330

0.0 0.0

119

1,024

0.2 156

109

0.0

2,645

0.6 514 0.2 191

927 263

0.1

7,844 1,561

1.1 1,041 0.3 254

M56 Self Supporters N57 Community Elders N58 Culture & Comfort N59 Large Family Living N60 Ageing Access O61 Career Builders O62 Central Pulse O63 Flexible Workforce O64 Bus-Route Renters O65 Learners & Earners O66 Student Scene

236

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1

0 0

0 0 9

464

647

1,423

0.2 173

0 0

0.0 0.0

0 0

Total

51,293 - -

46,958,758 - -

0.11 - -

LATENT DEMAND REPORT

SAMPLE CLUB

NEED TO KNOW… As noted previously, it’s important to know as much as possible about the dominant types in your catchment. In the case of the Sample Club, we can tell you that: ■ The majority of the group I population falls into type I36 (Solid Economy – 17.4%). These are families who rent higher-value homes from local authorities or housing associations. Homes are typically terraced and are likely to have three bedrooms. While many are employed, incomes are below average. ■ In group M, it is type M55 (Back with the Folks) which stands out, accounting for over 15% of all adults aged 15+ in your catchment. These are mature families who have adult children living with them in their affordable family homes. The children are in their 20s but haven’t yet reached a position where they can afford to rent or buy their own home. Many of the parents still work although incomes are well below average. ■ The majority of the group H population falls into type H30 (Primary Ambitions – 10.7%). These are families who have bought more affordable houses on the periphery of desirable neighbourhoods that have access to good schools and amenities. Parents are in their 30s or early 40s and they have young children. Incomes are above average, but mortgage payments and family expenses mean outgoings are high and there isn’t much money to spare.

H30

H31

H32

H33

H34

H35

Primary Ambitions Families with school-age children, who have bought the best house they can afford within

popular neighbourhoods H30

Advert Resp

Who We Are

Household income

Age

36–45

£50k–£59,999

131

237 44.3%

263 20.8%

Number of children

Household composition

280

Pseudo family

Key Features

Household T

231 25.0%

313 43.1%

Children's toys/accessories sites Internet via smartphone High outstanding mortgages Vocational qualifications 3 bed terraces Families with young children

Residency type

Tenure

Terraced

Owned

125 80.6%

208 52.4%

LATENT DEMAND REPORT

SAMPLE CLUB

I36

I37

I38

I39

Solid Economy I36

Stable families with children, renting higher value homes from social landlords

Advert Resp

Who We Are

Household income

Age

36–45

£20k–£29,999

144 26.8%

204 40.0%

Number of children

Household composition

Family + other adults

Key Features

Household T

138 22.3%

203 25.3%

School-age children Council/HA tenants

Residency type

Tenure

Single trip travel insurance Standard current/savings account Low discretionary income No qualifications

Terraced

Council/HA

513 90.5%

177 44.6%

M54

M55

M56

Back with the Folks Older owners whose adult children are sharing their modest home while striving to gain

independence M55

Mosaic UK

Advert Resp

Who We Are

Household income

Age

56–65

£30k–£39,999

201 30.6%

210 33.7%

Number of children

Household composition

Family + other adults

No children

Key Features

Household T

530 85.4%

143 99.1%

Solar panels Established in community Low outstanding mortgage 3 bedrooms Adult children at home Homeowners

Residency type

Tenure

Terraced

Owned

134 86.5%

181 45.5%

LATENT DEMAND REPORT

SAMPLE CLUB

Aside from the prominent types shown on the previous pages, there are four other types that stand out, each accounting for more than 3.5% of your catchment population. ■ L52 (Estate Veterans – 5.16%) are long-term tenants who have been renting their homes from the local authority for many years. Most are in their 60s, 70s and beyond and tend to rely on the state pension. ■ I37 (Budget Generations – 4.28%) are busy households where parents share modestly priced family homes with adult children. Couples are in their 40s or 50s and children are between their teens and mid-20s. These are settled families who have lived in their current homes for many years. ■ F23 (Family Ties – 3.61%) are middle-aged couples who still provide a home for their maturing offspring. Parents are typically in their late 40s or early 50s and usually have at least one child between the age of 18 and 25 living with them. ■ G28 (Modern Parents – 3.51%) are homeowners in their late 30s and 40s who live in contemporary houses found in developments on the outskirts of cities and towns. These families usually have school-age children. In many households both parents work, earning good salaries. As the montages below show, those in type G28 have the highest household incomes while those in type L52 have the lowest. Those in types I37, F23 and G28 are similar in age while those in type L52 are the oldest.

F22

F23

F24

F25

Family Ties Active families with adult children and some teens, giving prolonged support to the next

generation F23

Advert Resp

Who We Are

Household income

Age

46–55

£50k–£59,999

202 38.1%

389 30.8%

Number of children

Household composition

Family + other adults

Key Features

Household T

580 93.4%

226 31.2%

Order from takeaways Games consoles Internet via smartphone Outstanding mortgage under £100k Own 3 bed semis Teenage/adult children at home

Residency type

Tenure

Semi-detached

Owned

141 90.7%

206 53.5%

LATENT DEMAND REPORT

SAMPLE CLUB

G26

G27

G28

G29

Modern Parents Busy couples in modern detached homes juggling the demands of school-age children and

careers G28

Advert Resp

Who We Are

Household income

Age

46–55

£70k–£99,999

100

178 33.6%

473 37.8%

Number of children

Household composition

145

Family

Key Features

Household T

196 45.0%

283 35.2%

Mid to high household income Mid-sized, detached houses Modern houses Families with school-age children

Residency type

Tenure

Detached

Owned

Outstanding mortgage Monthly discretionary income under £1000

144 92.7%

445 82.5%

I36

I37

I38

I39

Budget Generations I37

Families providing lodgings for adult children and gaining the benefit of pooled resources

Mosaic UK

Advert Resp

Who We Are

Household income

Age

46–55

£30k–£39,999

110

175 32.9%

205 32.9%

Number of children

Household composition

Family + other adults

Key Features

Household T

540 87.0%

165 22.8%

Low discretionary income Low outstanding mortgage 3 bedrooms Families with teenage/adult children

Residency type

Tenure

Semi-detached

Council/HA

Solar panels Order from takeaways

160 28.2%

184 47.9%

LATENT DEMAND REPORT

SAMPLE CLUB

L49

L50

L51

L52

L53

Estate Veterans Longstanding elderly renters of social homes who have seen neighbours change to a mix of

owners and renters L52

Advert Resp

Who We Are

Household income

Age

66+

<£15k

415 76.7%

473 77.8%

Number of children

Household composition

178

Single

No children

Key Features

Household T

163 64.5%

144 99.8%

Fuel and water poverty Established in community Very low discretionary income No qualifications Council/HA tenants Retired singles

Residency type

Tenure

Terraced

Council/HA

532 93.9%

147 37.1%

At Leisure DB, we know how important it is to have a detailed understanding of the age profile of your catchment, especially when you have products and services you know will appeal to specific ages and genders. That’s why a full age report is now included in our latent demand report as standard, segmenting the population of your catchment not only by age band but also by gender. You’ll find your detailed catchment age profile in Appendix II of this report. Overall, this Harlow catchment has higher than average numbers of families. The number of adults aged 30-44 is higher than average, as is the number of young children. The number of people aged 50+ is lower than the national average.

Mosaic UK

LATENT DEMAND REPORT

SAMPLE CLUB

WHERE EXACTLY ARE THEY? Our latent demand reports include a Mosaic map as standard, as a valuable complement to your Mosaic report (i.e. the demographic make-up of your catchment) and competition map (see page 21). A Mosaic map allows you to see not only who’s in your catchment, but exactly where they are and – when viewed alongside your competition map – their proximity to competitive sites. Note that Mosaic maps are broken down by Mosaic groups rather than types. Each dot on the map is a postcode area, which can cover 15–20 households. Each dot is colour-coded by the dominant Mosaic group for that postcode, giving you a clear visual picture of the types of people living in your catchment, and more specifically, exactly where they live.

MOSAIC MAP FOR SAMPLE CLUB Shows one- and two-mile bands

Gilston

Eastwick

A414

Harlow Tye

Harlow

Hobbs Cross

!. Sample Club 1 mile bands Mosaic UK Groups A City Prosperity

M11

Foster Street

B Prestige Positions C Country Living D Rural Reality E Senior Security

A414

F Suburban Stability G Domestic Success H Aspiring Homemakers I Family Basics J Transient Renters K Municipal Challenge L Vintage Value M Modest Traditions N Urban Cohesion O Rental Hubs

Hastingwood

Broadley Common

Rye Hill

A414

LATENT DEMAND REPORT

SAMPLE CLUB

As noted previously, a competition map is another critical part of the jigsaw, allowing you to understand who else is potentially serving the Mosaic groups and types in your catchment. That’s why we include a competition map in all our latent demand reports (see below). This allows you to view the population clusters in your Mosaic map and compare them to the competitive sites in the area, which can quickly highlight important additional considerations. For example, if you have a lot of students or young people in your catchment, is there a university gym, and is it located close to this population cluster? If so, many of them will likely be members there, meaning this group/type may not represent as significant an opportunity for you as you might originally have thought.

COMPETITION MAP FOR SAMPLE CLUB Shows one- and two-mile bands

LATENT DEMAND REPORT

SAMPLE CLUB

For the Sample Club, we’ve already established that Mosaic group I is the dominant group in the catchment. As you’ll see in your Mosaic map, these group I households are fairly evenly distributed across the catchment, particularly to the west. Now let’s compare Mosaic and competition maps. Take a look at where group I is clustered on the Mosaic map, then look at the corresponding area of your competition map. You can see that PureGym, JD Gyms and Harlow LeisureZone are located in the middle of this cluster of group I households. It’s reasonable to assume that these competitor gyms are serving this group with a product that suits them. Now look at the area to the east of the Sample Club, towards the M11. As shown in the Mosaic map below, there is a cluster of group G and H households (Domestic Success and Aspiring Homemakers, respectively) within the purple curved area. Compare this to the competition map and you’ll see there is a dry sports centre just to the north of this area, but it does not offer swimming facilities. We know that many of these group G and H households are likely to have young children, so this could be a great target area for your new club on the basis that it will offer a swimming pool.

M11

Foster Street

Hastingwood

M11

Clusters of group G and H households to the east of the Sample Club.

LATENT DEMAND REPORT

SAMPLE CLUB

CATCHMENT COMPETITION Here’s another reason why a Leisure DB latent demand report is such a great investment: you don’t also need to commission a separate competitor analysis. Throughout the year, Leisure DB’s dedicated research team captures competitor changes as they occur – including new openings, closures, gym expansions and site/management takeovers. We have our finger on the pulse, with the most current and comprehensive data available on the supply side of the UK fitness sector. As part of our research, we map out every gym in the area, including those yet to open but already in the advanced pipeline. Armed with this report, you’ll know who else operates in the area, what they offer and what they charge. All of this is built into our latent demand forecasts (see next section). Looking at the Sample Club, there are eight other fitness gyms within a two- mile radius. Four of these are within a mile; however, only one of the four also offers swimming facilities in addition to the gym. The newest entrant to the Harlow market is JD Gyms, which opened in April 2021. Located at the Harvey Centre, it offers a large gym, plus ladies-only gym, and group exercise classes for £24.99 per month. Close to JD is another large low-cost club: PureGym. This offers a large gym and classes for £22.99 per month and the club is also open 24/7. The principal public facility in the area is Harlow LeisureZone, a huge facility which opened in 2010 and is managed by Harlow & District Sports Trust. In addition to the 200-station gym, there are two swimming pools, sports hall, studios and squash courts. It is also home to a trampoline park, soft play and climbing walls. Monthly membership costs £50. Body Fresh Fitness is the closest competitor to the Sample Club. Based at Harlow Rugby Club, it primarily offers personal and small group training. However, there is also open gym membership. Ripped Gym is an independent club which opened in 2008. Primarily a strength training gym, it also offers a combat training area and some cardio equipment. Monthly membership costs £50, reduced if you sign up for 12 months. To the north and close to the train station is Anytime Fitness. This club offers a 30-station gym and studio for £42.99 per month; it is open 24/7. Paringdon Sports & Social Club, to the southwest, offers a gym and small number of classes for £19 per month. Just over a mile away, to the northeast, is Mark Hall Sports Centre, based at the academy of the same name. It offers an approximately 25-station gym, sports hall and studio; monthly membership costs £26. Outside the catchment, there is one other fitness gym shown on the competition map. Body Active Gym is an independent strength training facility which opened in the early 2000s. Monthly membership costs around £40.

LATENT DEMAND REPORT

SAMPLE CLUB

YOUR LATENT DEMAND FORECAST The final step is to calculate how many members you’re likely to attract to your facility, which – as you’ll see in the breakdown (next page) – we break down by Mosaic type to help you fine-tune your planning. We estimate the latent demand for fitness at the Sample Club to be 2,016. This is the total number of members we feel could be achieved. This figure includes allowance for 25% of the total to come from outside the estimated catchment area. It also includes some negative consideration for competition in the area. Note that this isn’t about stretch goals. It’s about what 20+ years of accumulated data and experience tell us is actually feasible. We’re here to help you set realistic expectations. This estimate includes allowance for 25% of the total to come from outside the estimated catchment area. It also includes some negative consideration for competition in the area. Let’s go into a bit more detail, including which population types your members are likely to come from. In the following breakdown, you’ll see three columns. The first column lists all 66 Mosaic types, while the second column shows the total number of adults aged 15+ in your catchment that fall into each type. The final column shows the estimated demand for your facility, within your catchment, from each Mosaic type. That is, how many members you’re likely to actually get from each type. Note that these individuals could be brand new to gym membership or cannibalised from elsewhere. All estimates are based on the various filters applied within our model – i.e. the estimated penetration rates for each type are calculated based on your offering, location, pricing, the local competition and so on. Each filter applied or changed will therefore also change the penetration rate for each type.

LATENT DEMAND REPORT

SAMPLE CLUB

ESTIMATE OF LATENT DEMAND FOR HEALTH & FITNESS Based on a two-mile radius of Sample Club

Mosaic UK Type

Total Adult Population (15+)

Total Health & Fitness Demand

A01

World-Class Wealth

A02 Uptown Elite

A03 Penthouse Chic

A04 Metro High-Flyers

B05

Premium Fortunes

B06

Diamond Days

B07

Alpha Families

B08 Bank of Mum and Dad

656

B09

Empty-Nest Adventure

258

C10

Wealthy Landowners

327

C11

Rural Vogue

C12

Scattered Homesteads

C13

Village Retirement

D14

Satellite Settlers

D15

Local Focus

D16

Outlying Seniors

D17

Far-Flung Outposts

E18

Legacy Elders

156

E19

Bungalow Haven

E20

Classic Grandparents

655

E21

Solo Retirees

1,101

F22

Boomerang Boarders

617

F23

Family Ties

1,852

F24

Fledgling Free

F25

Dependable Me

293

G26 Cafés and Catchments

G27

Thriving Independence

525

G28 Modern Parents

1,798

100

G29

Mid-Career Convention

165

H30 Primary Ambitions

5,487

249

H31

Affordable Fringe

641

H32

First-Rung Futures

H33

Contemporary Starts

1,680

H34 New Foundations

165

H35

Flying Solo

224

continued overleaf

LATENT DEMAND REPORT

SAMPLE CLUB

ESTIMATE OF LATENT DEMAND FOR HEALTH & FITNESS (continued) Based on a two-mile radius of Sample Club

Mosaic UK Type

Total Adult Population (15+)

Total Health & Fitness Demand

I36

Solid Economy

8,918

285

I37

Budget Generations

2,196

I38

Economical Families

1,125

I39

Families on a Budget

893

J40

Value Rentals

J41

Youthful Endeavours

919

J42

Midlife Renters

960

J43

Renting Rooms

K44 Inner City Stalwarts

K45

City Diversity

102

K46 High Rise Residents

K47

Single Essentials

1,757

K48 Mature Workers

L49

Flatlet Seniors

119

L50

Pocket Pensions

1,024

L51

Retirement Communities

109

L52

Estate Veterans

2,645

L53

Seasoned Survivors

927

M54 Down-to-Earth Owners

263

M55 Back with the Folks

7,844

292

M56 Self Supporters

1,561

N57 Community Elders

236

N58 Culture & Comfort

N59 Large Family Living

N60 Ageing Access

O61 Career Builders

464

O62 Central Pulse

O63 Flexible Workforce

647

O64 Bus-Route Renters

1,423

O65 Learners and Earners

O66 Student Scene

Sub Total

51,293

1,812

+604

Add consideration for 25% of members from outside catchment

-400

Minus consideration for competition/decay on catchment fringes

Estimate of Latent Demand for Health & Fitness

2,016

LATENT DEMAND REPORT

SAMPLE CLUB

GOT EXISTING MEMBER DATA? You now have the most robust, reliable data on which to base your decisions, but please don’t stop there in your due diligence. Where you have existing members, you might also be interested in our member analysis reports, which provide a deep dive into who your members are, where they’re travelling from, how well you’re penetrating each population group within your catchment, and the defining characteristics of your key member types. Two elements of these member analysis reports – our Mosaic member profiles and our member dot maps – are particularly valuable complements to our latent demand reports. The former establishes how well you currently penetrate each Group and Type of consumers in your catchment. The latter, by showing where your members live, allows marketing to be focused on the areas of highest return to fulfil latent demand predictions.

Get in touch now to request a member dot map and/or a Mosaic member profile to enhance your latent demand insights!

LATENT DEMAND REPORT

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