SAMPLE CLUB
CREATING A CATCHMENT We have set out to assess the latent demand for fitness at a proposed new leisure facility in Harlow. There are potential plans to build a brand new leisure facility which would include fitness as well as a cinema, tenpin bowling and restaurants. The fitness element would include a c. 80-station gym, group exercise and cycle studios, indoor swimming pool and a small sports hall. When estimating latent demand for any facility, we start with the catchment area. From how far away will people be willing to travel to use your facility, and how large is the population within that catchment? Establishing this is an important first step in estimating latent demand. For your project, we’ve concentrated on the population that lives within a two-mile radius of the facility. We believe this is realistic based on:
■ The number of people living in the catchment
The competing gyms in the catchment
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■ The geographical area this catchment covers This two-mile radius catchment area is shown on the Mosaic and competition maps (see pages 20 and 21). When estimating a catchment area, we run various options through the model to determine what’s realistic based on a range of factors, before also applying our 20+ years of experience to factor in other variables that can influence catchments. Because this isn’t just about drive time, or even population clusters and where your competitors are. It’s about what you’re offering, and for what price. And it’s about geography, natural boundaries and man-made features. Located just to one side of a river, but without a convenient, nearby bridge to cross it? You can pretty much rule out any custom from the other side of the river, however close they may be as the crow flies. Railway lines can have a similar effect. Identified a large population density within a 10-minute drive time, but with that short drive time facilitated by a motorway? Our experience suggests that won’t work: that in this case, it’s about distance, not just journey time. People tend not to go on the motorway to get to a gym. On the flip side, if valleys and mountains are involved, you’re very much looking at drive time, however close things might look as the crow flies.
LATENT DEMAND REPORT
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