Site Analysis Report

SAMPLE CLUB

CREATING A CATCHMENT We have set out to assess the latent demand for fitness at a proposed new leisure facility in Harlow. There are potential plans to build a brand new leisure facility which would include fitness as well as a cinema, tenpin bowling and restaurants. The fitness element would include a c. 80-station gym, group exercise and cycle studios, indoor swimming pool and a small sports hall. When analysing the potential for any facility, we start with the catchment area. From how far away will people be willing to travel to use your facility, and how large is the population within that catchment? Establishing this is an important first step in estimating latent demand. For your project, we’ve concentrated on the population that lives within a two-mile radius of the facility. We believe this is realistic based on:

THE POWER OF MOSAIC

Once your catchment area has been defined, it’s time to understand the make-up of its population. This is where Mosaic comes in. Based on 450+ data variables, Experian’s Mosaic consumer classification platform encompasses 15 groups (see appendix) that break down into 66 types. For example, within Group A sit four types, all sharing enough characteristics to group them together – in this case, high income – but differing in other ways, such as age, having children and so on. Mosaic is designed to present a clear picture of who lives where in the UK, with groups offering an overall feel of a catchment, then types going into more detail. Indeed, thanks to Experian, every UK postcode can be classified by dominant Mosaic type(s). In turn, that means an accurate understanding of the demographics and characteristics of the population in any area of the UK – age, life stage, affluence, home ownership, types of property, whether they have children, how they holiday, shop, consume social media… THE ACCURACY OF TYPES Leisure DB’s supply demand model works at the detailed level of Mosaic types, with our model not only showing dominant types, but all types within the catchment indexed to show their comparative weighting and importance. Using types is what drives the accuracy and value of our reports, as it really allows us to dive into the specifics. In our model, each Mosaic type has its own predicted penetration rate for your facility or planned facility – and those penetration rates are calculated using our peerless database of facilities and members, with a range of filters applied to ensure we’re comparing like with like. Does your facility, or planned facility, have a pool? What about a group exercise studio? How big is the gym? In what part of the UK is it? What’s the price point? What are the population numbers and demographic clusters in the catchment area? Each filter applied narrows and refines the set of facilities against which we benchmark yours, so your latent demand forecast is based only on learnings from relevant – i.e. highly similar – sites. Each filter applied also changes the likely demand, and therefore penetration rate, for each Mosaic type, because each new filter will of course impact the

■ The number of people living in the catchment

The competing gyms in the catchment

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■ The geographical area this catchment covers This two-mile radius catchment area is shown on the Mosaic and competition maps (see pages 20 and 21). When estimating a catchment area, we run various options through the model to determine what’s realistic based on a range of factors, before also applying our 20+ years of experience to factor in other variables that can influence catchments. Because this isn’t just about drive time, or even population clusters and where your competitors are. It’s about what you’re offering, and for what price. And it’s about geography, natural boundaries and man-made features. Located just to one side of a river, but without a convenient, nearby bridge to cross it? You can pretty much rule out any custom from the other side of the river, however close they may be as the crow flies. Railway lines can have a similar effect. Identified a large population density within a 10-minute drive time, but with that short drive time facilitated by a motorway? Our experience suggests that won’t work: that in this case, it’s about distance, not just journey time. People tend not to go on the motorway to get to a gym. On the flip side, if valleys and mountains are involved, you’re very much looking at drive time, however close things might look as the crow flies.

relevance and appeal of your facility for each prospect type. The result is the most accurate possible forecast of demand.

SITE ANALYSIS REPORT

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