RENNIE OUTLOOK 2023
It’s a tricky task: laying bare predictions for a year ahead based on the available data but without the benefit of knowing how the coming months may transpire and conspire to alter the trajectory of the things used to inform said predictions. Alas, this is what we signed up for in producing the rennie outlook , now in its third annual iteration—a compendium of predictions of key macroeconomic, demographic, and housing- related measures for the coming year. To be fair, “alas” is probably the wrong word to use in this context. There is no real burden associated with producing forecasts, as long as they are rooted in quality data, objective thought, and the appropriate balance between art and science as it pertains to either extending recent trends into the future or charting a new path for them. On this point, the value of presenting the predictions contained herein are, as we see them, twofold. First, the predictions represent our best (educated) guesses for where things like home sales, prices and rents, inflation, interest rates, and employment are going in the next 12 months. Second—and perhaps most importantly—we elaborate on the assumptions and context that inform our expectations for the housing market and macroeconomy, with the notion that this can be the basis for constructive conversation and debate about how our market is evolving.
table of contents .
2 INTRO
3 HOUSING: SALES, PRICES, & RENTS
5 DEMOGRAPHICS
7 JOBS, INFLATION & INTEREST RATES
We hope you enjoy this edition and find its content useful.
Ryan Wyse Senior Analyst
Ryan Berlin Senior Economist & Director of Intelligence rberlin@rennie.com
rwyse@rennie.com
Copyright © 2023 rennie group of companies. All rights reserved. This material may not be reproduced or distributed, in whole or in part, without the prior written permission of the rennie group of companies. Current as of January 31, 2023. Data from the Greater Vancouver and Fraser Valley Boards, Statistics Canada, Zonda Urban, CMHC, & rennie. While the information and data contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. rennie group of companies does not assume responsibility or liability for any inaccuracies. The recipient of the information should take steps as the recipient may deem necessary to verify the information prior to placing any reliance upon the information. The information contained within this report should not be used as an opinion of value, such opinions should and can be obtained from a rennie and associates advisor. All information is subject to change and any property may be withdrawn from the market at any time without notice or obligation to the recipient from rennie group of companies. E.&O.E. 2
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