RENNIE OUTLOOK 2023
jobs, wages, inflation & rates: moderation is in the cards
EMPLOYMENT
After a sussultatory period for employment spanning most of 2020 through 2022—with the year-to-year change in the number of jobs in Metro Vancouver swinging widely from a loss of 124,300 in 2020 to a net gain of 118,100 in 2021 and an additional bump of 39,500 in 2022—we expect regional employment growth to be more muted in 2023. More specifically, the (slightly) below-average job additions we’re predicting for the coming year reflect an already-tight labour market, slowing consumer spending and business investment, and continued uncertainty about the trajectory for economic growth in the near-term.
OUR 2023 OUTLOOK Employment in Metro Vancouver is expected to grow by just under 30,000 jobs over the coming year. As noted below, an expected, though slight, deterioration in the labour market conditions—vis-a-vis a rising unemployment rate—will at the margin serve to mitigate what would otherwise be more robust job growth.
JOB GROWTH
UNEMPLOYMENT
For the first time since 2019, labour markets across Canada in 2022 were characterized more by stability than volatility. This was certainly true for Metro Vancouver, where the unemployment rate gradually slid from 5.4% at the start of the year to 4.5% by the end. Though this continued improvement in the region’s labour market—which began in earnest after the unemployment rate peaked at 14.6% in May 2020—labour supply and demand returned to a more familiar dynamic, reminiscent of the period from January 2017 to March 2020 when the unemployment rate remained below 5.0%.
OUR 2023 OUTLOOK Higher interest rates, a declining job vacancy rate (amidst a falling number of job vacancies), and headcount consolidation after a fervent period of hiring for many industries, have paved the way for a modest rise in Metro Vancouver’s unemployment rate into the middle of 2023. We see the rate rising to 5.3% in June before falling back to 4.7% by year’s end.
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
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Copyright © 2023 rennie group of companies. All rights reserved. This material may not be reproduced or distributed, in whole or in part, without the prior written permission of the rennie group of companies. Current as of January 31, 2023. Data from the Greater Vancouver and Fraser Valley Boards, Statistics Canada, Zonda Urban, CMHC, & rennie. While the information and data contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. rennie group of companies does not assume responsibility or liability for any inaccuracies. The recipient of the information should take steps as the recipient may deem necessary to verify the information prior to placing any reliance upon the information. The information contained within this report should not be used as an opinion of value, such opinions should and can be obtained from a rennie and associates advisor. All information is subject to change and any property may be withdrawn from the market at any time without notice or obligation to the recipient from rennie group of companies. E.&O.E. 8
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