play out as other recent shutdowns had... A back and forth between Congress and the president, a failed agreement or two, and then partial or full government funding. Shutdown threats are nothing new, and often they’re just that – threats. But as the current shutdown approaches its 30th day, even Wall Street is starting to worry. The concern is that the shutdown fight could convince investors and consumers that the government will spend all of 2019 in conflict, and that uncertainty could hinder investments or consumer spending... especially in the case of nearly 1 million furloughed federal workers. Another factor are pre-shutdown fears of slowed growth due to prolonged trade battles and a leveling-out of the 2017 tax cut’s economic benefits. Recessions are generally triggered by unexpected shocks to the economy... like the late-1990s dot-com crash or the 2008 housing bubble. A prolonged shutdown has the potential to trigger similar, unforeseen large- scale events... As we go to press, furloughed federal employees have only missed a single paycheck. If the shutdown were to end before their next payday, January 25, analysts believe the impact to the economy would be minimal. But as workers go longer without pay, the damage is harder to repair. Consumer debt is at record highs, and missed payments as well as high-interest loans to cover those payments, will only make things worse. For the moment, Wall Street is finding optimism in strong corporate earnings and
a Fed that’s willing to pull back on interest rate hikes should the economy weaken in 2019. And although the markets have been volatile, analysts don’t see the shutdown as a contributing factor. For now, the consensus on Wall Street is that, “this is fine.” The economy is slowing but still strong, and the government will sort itself out before the damage becomes irreparable... We hope they’re right. In what some consider to be a dig at Facebook and Google, Apple CEO Tim Cook is making a case for consumer privacy protection on a national scale. In a recent article for TIME, Cook writes: “In 2019, it’s time to stand up for the right to privacy — yours, mine, all of ours... That’s why I and others are calling on the U.S. Congress to pass comprehensive federal privacy legislation — a landmark package of reforms that protect and empower the consumer.” Cook’s “package of reforms” includes establishing a federal data-broker clearinghouse, where consumers can view and track all transactions involving their personal data, as well as being able to delete personal data, on demand, freely and easily. While we agree that consumers should have a right to privacy and that transparency in how our personal data is used and sold is vital... We’re not so sure the federal government is the right agency for the job. (We’re looking at you in particular, IRS.) Apple ‘thinks different’...
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