Chinese incursions into the Senkaku/Diaoyu area in the East China Sea. China also wants to de-escalate tensions with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations over the South China Sea through the accelerated negotiation of a “code of conduct.” China is also likely to enjoy a calmer relationship with India, following the bilateral summit in Wuhan in April. And China may begin to moderate its stance on Taiwan, given the poor results of Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen’s pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party in last month’s local government elections. This would, of course, change radically if the U.S. proceeds with further significant arms sales to Taiwan, as is likely. Maritime incidents with the U.S. in the South China Sea have continued, and the conflict may sharpen if the U.S. pursues its Freedom of Navigation program more vigorously next year. Across Eurasia, China will continue to roll out its Belt and Road Initiative. However, in recent months, the BRI has attracted less domestic political fanfare. There is already debate among Chinese officials about revising certain BRI modalities, following negative reaction to Sri Lanka’s handover to China of the Hambantota Port, and concerns over the BRI’s long-term affordability. We may therefore see less Chinese BRI triumphalism in 2019. RELATIONS IN 2019
Moreover, China is likely to consolidate and expand its role within the existing United Nations and Bretton Woods institutions, rather than emphasizing new institutions of international governance. It will likely continue to be the WTO’s new champion, and to sustain its posture on global climate change as agreed under the 2015 Paris climate agreement. To the more sober minds in China’s foreign policy establishment, it is better to focus on the existing machinery of the global rules-based system, particularly when the U.S. is demonstrating systematic contempt for it. As China seeks to re- stabilize its relationship with the U.S. and ease tensions in its non-U.S. relationships, its leaders are likely to use 2019 to form a deeper judgment As China seeks to re-stabilize its relationship with the U.S. and ease tensions in its non- U.S. relationships, its leaders are likely to use 2019 to form a deeper judgment about the future of U.S. politics: the impact of the Mueller investigation on Trump and his administration, and whether a new president in 2020 (or sooner) would in any way change the emerging new U.S. strategy. While they have already concluded that a deep shift in American attitudes to China has occurred, they remain uncertain about what precise form that shift is taking, and whether a fundamental shift in their strategy (as opposed to tactics) is warranted.
Kevin Rudd , former prime minister of Australia, is president of the Asia Society Policy Institute in New York and chair of the Independent Commission on Multilateralism.
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January 2019
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