MARKET REPORT
Market Perspective The carry-in figure was the most notable surprise of this position report. The carry out from July’s position report was adjusted with an actual loss and exempt percentage of 3.14%. This puts the official carry in at 483.8 million pounds Additionally, this year the Almond Board of California conducted a voluntary survey regarding the edible portion of the 2025/26 carry-in inventory. Based on those results, only 92.4% of the total carry in is estimated to be edible, bringing the number down further to an estimated 447 million pounds. With the anticipated carry in and skepticism around the 3.0-billion-pound Objective Estimate, California is exercising caution with offered volumes. Prices have risen sharply over the last month and are expected to remain strong as buying continues in the weeks ahead. Harvest is underway, and clarity on the 2025 crop will emerge as receipts are assessed for quality, size, and overall supply potential. If you plan on attending Anuga Food Fair 2025, please stop by Hall 10.2 Stand G068 . The Blue Diamond Team would be glad to connect! COMMITMENTS Total commitments for the year start at 526.6 million pounds, a 13.2% decrease from last year. New sales for the month totaled 184.1 million pounds with the domestic market layering in an additional 55 million pounds and export locking in 129.1 million pounds of new coverage. In total, commitments for the domestic market now stand at 170.9 million pounds and exports stand at 355.7 million pounds CROP Crop receipts for the year begin at 259 million pounds, reflecting a 10.7% decline compared to the previous crop year. Recent concerns have emerged regarding lower yields from the central and southern region of the valley, particularly in the early varieties such as nonpareil which account for approximately 40% of the total crop. Many in the industry doubt the feasibility of the 3.0-billion-pound Objective Estimate and some are even speculating that the final yield could even fall below the 2.8-billion-pound Subjective Estimate. Consequently, California packers are adopting a cautious stance, limiting offers until there is greater clarity on the new crop’s potential.
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ALMOND FACTS
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