FIELD NOTES with MEL MACHADO
The Art and Science of Crop Estimating Accurate crop estimating is crucial for managing farm inputs and production costs, involving both art and science. While industry-level forecasting faces challenges and criticisms, individual orchard estimates rely on various factors and experience, with ongoing efforts to improve accuracy through technology and research.
On the Farm Several research projects are underway to develop tools to assist growers in estimating crops at the individual farm level. Private organizations are also working to develop tools for use by growers. At the orchard level, accurate crop estimation is critical to providing the appropriate amount of fertilizer materials and water. It is important to provide the nutrients required to the developing crop and enough to support spur development for crops in following years. Recognizing crop load early in the growing season, shortly after the first shedding period, can help growers and crop advisors make critical nutrient decisions. This provides needed nutrition to maximize production while also managing costs. For most growers, the classic method of crop estimating involves nothing more than a hands on your hips guess. At the individual orchard level, there are several factors that can influence yield: • Tree population per acre • Variety • Canopy size . Remember, six feet of daylight between the trees doesn’t produce any nuts. • The number of missing trees • Canopy density . Think of this as “tree health.” • Crop location within the canopy . Is the crop evenly distributed within the canopy or is it a “tip or top crop?”
The first estimate of any orchard is always the most challenging and the most prone to error. In subsequent years, knowledge of the orchard’s production history provides priceless insight into the orchard’s actual potential. Considering the variables listed above, the productive potential of two orchards that appear to be very similar can be surprisingly different. Knowing the orchard’s history definitely helps. Many of us also have a bias when evaluating crop yields. I know from experience that my first guess in any orchard tends to be about 10% too high. Experience helps when estimating crops in individual orchards, and I’ve been evaluating crops for a long time. But I have to admit that I’ve been both amazingly accurate and horrifyingly wrong on the same day.
Across the Industry At the industry level many still believe that the
ultimate answer lies in technology. Certainly, there are organizations claiming they have the answer by scanning the crop using cameras and aerial imagery. However, to this date, the methods proposed cannot produce an error rate of less than 10%, which is no better than current methods. One expert noted that the technology enabling this type of work is just a few years old, and the early work is rough. Perhaps technology will provide more accurate results in the future, but not now.
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ALMOND FACTS
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