Crop estimating falls into two categories: subjective, which is the result of opinion, and objective, which requires that a sample or measurement be taken. The biggest secret of crop estimation at the industry level lay in the variables that can create significant errors. Some are obvious, others are not. These include: • Harvested acreage – this can be different from the bearing acreage • Orchard demographics – the condition of the harvested acreage • Nut set per tree • Kernel weight • Tree population per acre • Turnout percentage – the meat weight harvested as a percentage of the field in-hull weight Most in the industry use the satellite data developed by Land IQ to determine California’s bearing acreage. It is generally accepted that Land IQ’s data is at least 98% accurate. That said, there are still limitations in the data. Anyone traveling through the Central Valley will observe a wide variation in orchard health. Many orchards have been literally abandoned and many more are in very poor condition. When documenting California’s bearing almond acreage, the basic theory is that, if an orchard is green and standing, it’s considered bearing. However, whether that acreage is harvested or not is unknown, as is the potential production of those that are harvested.
While orchard removals show up quite easily in the satellite imagery, stress is harder to quantify. It is expected that the areas with the greatest stress are found in the San Joaquin Valley. In their November 2024 report, Land IQ published data presenting the relative stress levels observed in California’s almond acreage. They classified the stress levels and acreage within each category as follows: • Tier 1A - Low to moderate levels of stress observed in the current water year • Tier 1B - Low to moderate levels of stress observed across two or more consecutive water years • Tier 2 - Moderate to high levels of stress observed during the current water year • Tier 3 - Moderate to high levels of stress observed during two or more consecutive water years
Tier 1A Tier 1B Tier 2 Tier 3 Total All Tiers
6,675
5,025
4,939 13,876 30,515
33
SEPTEMBER–OCTOBER 2025
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