Turnout Percentage. The turnout percentage is the last variable that can make or break an accurate crop estimate.
It is the meat weight expressed as a percentage of the total removed from the orchard. Many will ask how this value is important as the field weight includes orchard debris that must be deducted. However, turnout can provide an early indication of which direction a crop will go. A small variation can create a significant change in the total crop amount. Huller/sheller managers have reported a wide range of turnout values in recent years, as much as 2.0% from historical averages. Consider the example below with a 1% change in turnout.
Keep in mind that this represents the same number of nuts. But the relative weight of the hull, shell and kernel varied enough to create a significant difference in the final crop total. While I don’t believe that this article
Original Estimate
3,000,000,000
Turnout %
24.0%
Field Weight
12,500,000,000
will help anyone do a better job of estimating the crops in their individual orchards, hopefully it leads to a better understanding of the process. We’ve all come to expect science and mathematics to produce very accurate results in the things we measure. But you must remember that we are applying these tools to a highly variable medium, trees and orchards, across the landscape. The results can only be as accurate as the variables allow. Revised Turnout% 23.0% Revised Estimate 2,875,000,000 Variation (125,000,000)
Mel Machado, Chief Agricultural Officer, Blue Diamond Growers
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SEPTEMBER–OCTOBER 2025
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