them are approximations. And several factors may cause the growth rate to change. For one thing, the fertility rate is gradually declining practically everywhere and among nearly all religious and ethnic groups, and Canadian Jewish women are no excep- tion. For another, the Canadian Jewish population is aging. In 2011, the median age of Canadian Jews was 40.2, rising to 41.6 in 2021. Consequently, the annual excess of Jewish births over deaths is likely to decline in the coming years. Therefore, the number of Jews in Canada will increasing- ly depend on more Jews immigrating to Canada than emi- grating from it. The US and Israel are the destinations of the great ma- jority of Canadian-Jewish emigrants. The level of Canadi- an-Jewish emigration in a given year depends chiefly on the difference between Canada’s unemployment rate versus the unemployment rates of Israel and the US. If Canada’s un- employment rate rises relative to the unemployment rates of the US and Israel, more Jews leave Canada. If Canada’s unemployment rate falls relative to the unemployment rates of the US and Israel, more Jews immigrate to Canada. According to Statistics Canada, the main source coun- tries for Jewish immigrants to Canada are Israel (32 percent of the total between 2011 and 2021), the US (18 percent of the total), Russia and Ukraine (a combined 18 percent of the total), and France (4 percent of the total). Since Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, more than six million Ukrainians and near- ly one million Russians have left their homelands. As long as the war continues, Canada may experience an increase in Jewish immigration from these countries, particularly Ukraine, since Canada eased residency requirements for Ukrainian nationals shortly after the invasion began. Similarly, in October 2023, the outbreak of war between Israel and Hamas resulted in increased immigration from Israel, encouraged by an easing of Canadian residency requirements for Israeli nationals. Based on actual immi- gration figures up to June 2024, Jewish Immigrant Aid Ser- vices (JIAS) anticipated that about 1,000 Israelis would im- migrate to Canada in 2024. An unknown number of ad- ditional Israelis will have immigrated without JIAS assis- tance. In the first 11 months of 2024, 7,850 Israelis received temporary Canadian work visas, nearly five times more than in the preceding 12 months. American politics also shapes immigration trends. There was a noticeable increase in American migration to Cana- da during Donald Trump’s first presidency (2017–21). It is not inconceivable that Canada will witness another such increase during Trump’s second term. Since about 70 per- cent of American Jews vote Democrat, and are therefore more likely to be dissatisfied with the Republican Trump regime than are non-Democrats, a disproportionately large number of American immigrants to Canada may be Jews. On the other hand, Trump’s tariffs may cause Canada’s un- employment rate to rise relative to the US unemployment rate, in which case there will be no uptick and perhaps even a decline in the immigration of US Jews to Canada.
All this buzz takes place outside the traditional centre of Jewish life: the synagogue. Secularization has not involved the abandonment of Jewish life so much as recasting it in a new mould to meet new, nonreligious needs. Traditionalists may object to relatively new non-religious Jewish organizations that threaten their hegemony, but they are growing nonetheless. Consider the four Canadian Zionist organizations that strongly support the existence of a Jewish state in Israel, yet are openly and often highly critical of certain aspects of Israel’s government: ARZA Canada, the Zionist voice of Canada’s Reform movement and a critic of the near-mo- nopoly of Orthodox Judaism in Israel and the political parties that support it; Canadian Friends of Peace Now, which backs the Israeli peace movement; the New Isra- el Fund of Canada, which regularly sends millions of dol- lars to fund projects in Israel that promote social and eco- nomic justice, religious freedom, civil and human rights, and democracy; and JSpaceCanada, which champions a two-state solution to the Israel-Palestine conflict. These organizations have roughly 15,000 followers combined. Between the end of 2022 and the end of 2023, New Isra- el Fund of Canada’s followers increased in number by 33 percent, donors by 71 percent, and donations by 91 per- cent. For JSpaceCanada the upward trend was even steep- er, with followers increasing in number by 90 percent, donors by 206 percent, and donations by 210 percent. These organizations experienced especially rapid growth after the most right-wing government in Israel’s history took power in December 2022. And it’s a good thing for Jewish continuity, too. A 2024 survey of 588 Canadian Jewish adults shows that younger Canadian Jews are significantly less emo- tionally attached to Israel than are older Jews. If progressive Zionist organizations were not around to mobilize them, younger Jews might well drift farther from Jewish life. In sum, notwithstanding fears about the threat of los- ing Jews to secularization, evidence shows that seculariza- tion involves adaptation to the modern world more than it involves assimilation to the non-Jewish mainstream. Secu- larization facilitates the growth of Canadian Jewry. It is not, however, the only source of growth. LOOKING TO THE FUTURE BETWEEN 2020 AND 2021, the Canadian Jewish popula- tion matching Charles Shahar’s “standard” definition — the one that includes all Jews by religion, ethnicity, or ances- try, except those who have converted to a non-Jewish reli- gion — increased by about 0.4 percent. (I arrived at this fig- ure by estimating the annual excess of Jewish births over deaths and the annual excess of Jewish immigration over emigration). Supposing that growth rate holds steady, I estimate that Canada’s Jewish population is around 410,000 in 2025, and will be close to 419,000 in 2030. These are, however, estimates: the figures use to produce
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