2018 Midyear Outlook - Print


  The current expansion should last well into 2019 and beyond.   The U.S. labor market is at nearly full employment with payrolls rising.   Tariff measures by the United States are provoking retaliations by trading partners.   The Federal Reserve has raised the Fed funds rate twice in the first six months, with two more hikes anticipated by year's end.   Equity valuation levels are approaching lofty levels, but still below the all- time highs set in the 1990s. Over the past year, the world’s major economies have been enjoying a rare period of synchronized global growth. The recent uptick in the U.S. economy, now in year 10 of the current expansion, has been the strongest we have witnessed over the past several years. Global growth momentum outside the United States remains solid, but appears to be leveling off modestly as growing concerns of trade friction, geopolitical risk, domestic political struggles, and debt-related risks begin to surface. In total, world economic growth is forecast to approach 4% in 2018. U.S. economy operating at nearly full employment combined with favorable business climate will drive expansion into 2019


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