to increase in Q4 2026, compared with 25% expressing that expectation for Q4 2025. The share anticipating declines RESEARCH continued
with 17.6% expecting growth, down from 23.0%. Training gains were not universal either.
eased from 33.3% to 31.4%. Certification expectations also improved. The share pro- jecting growth rose from 17.9% to 19.6%, while the share expecting declines fell substantially, from 44.9% to 30.4%. Half expected certifi- cations to remain unchanged. Travel expectations moved
Independent instructors averaged 9.7 open water certifications, compared with 25.1 in Q3 2025. Their experience differs markedly from the retailer and travel groups. For retailers, the stronger cer- tification averages provide a reason to stay close to newly trained divers. Continuing ed-
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in the same direction. The share anticipating growth increased from 22.4% to 23.9%, while expected declines fell from 28.9% to 21.7%. A majority, 54.3%, expected unchanged travel sales. Together, these comparisons describe a less pessimistic outlook than respondents reported a year ear- lier. Sales Remain Uneven The improvements do not extend equally across every measure. In Q3, 28.8% reported higher gross sales, compared with 32.4% in the 2025 survey. Equipment remained more difficult: 12.5% reported higher sales, versus 30.3% a year earlier. The fourth-quarter equipment outlook also softened,
ucation, equipment consultations and dive travel can help turn that initial participation into an ongoing relationship. Suppliers and travel partners have an opportunity to support those efforts. These are voluntary surveys with changing respondent groups. US certification figures are extrapolations, and outlook percentages describe expectations, not completed sales. Within those limits, stronger retailer training figures and improved
expectations for three major business categories give the industry concrete reasons for encouragement heading into year-end.
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66 | SCUBA DIVING INDUSTRY
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