2026 Outlook: What We’re Seeing Now Basel 3.1: the final rehearsal
2026 represents the final rehearsal year ahead of the January 2027 go-live. The removal of SME support factors and the introduction of the 72.5% output floor are requiring CFOs to recalibrate capital strategy and risk-weighted asset (RWA) modelling. • Regulatory Reporting & Change Specialists: Sustained demand for professionals able to automate data pipelines and reduce reliance on manual spreadsheet-based processes. • Pillar 2 Focus: Banks are increasingly appointing interim specialists to navigate PRA off-cycle reviews and ensure internal models align with evolving standardised approaches. AI in Finance: moving beyond pilot CFOs are moving beyond AI pilots toward more embedded, operational use of AI-driven tools, as part of broader finance transformation programmes. By connecting intelligent automation into established data warehouse environments, firms are enabling near real-time reporting with minimal manual intervention. • Real-Time FP&A: Forecasting is shifting away from retrospective monthly cycles toward live, assumption-led modelling informed by market and operational data. • Continuous Planning: FP&A teams are increasingly running scenario simulations in near real time, allowing leadership teams to assess outcomes before results are formally closed. Strategic M&A and integration As capital availability improves, 2026 is expected to bring increased consolidation across fintech and SME banking platforms. One of the most critical hires will be integration-focused finance leaders — professionals capable of unifying disparate platforms while preserving the lean operating benchmarks established in 2025. Hybrid working: what’s sticking Hybrid working has largely standardised at three to four days per week in the office across the UK financial sector. As firms prioritise delivery, mentorship and execution quality, in-person collaboration is increasingly favoured for complex initiatives such as regulatory remediation, AI implementation and M&A integration. Cultural cohesion and delivery discipline are emerging as key differentiators in high-growth, resource-constrained environments. Compensation: renewed focus on base salary Following a year of conservative payouts and variable compensation underperformance, many candidates have de-prioritised bonus-heavy packages in favour of fixed pay certainty. As firms move into 2026, base salary has once again become the primary benchmark for senior finance professionals. Employers are responding by recalibrating fixed pay bands to remain competitive, recognising a clear shift in candidate preferences toward guaranteed earnings over volatile, performance-linked incentives. 5
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