be promoted (or, at the very least, to remain at the same level) and enjoy more independence in their roles. Yet my research with Professor Andrew Oswald, from the University of Warwick, suggests this is not the case. Using four sets of longitudinal survey data from three wealthy countries – the United Kingdom, Australia, and Germany – we analysed the responses of more than 400,000 workers. This allowed us to identify which workers felt they were allowed to work independently and track how these feelings of ‘autonomy’ changed over time through their working lives. Our results were surprising. We found that the level of autonomy reported by workers rose during the early part of their career, but peaked around the age of 40. It then declined sharply over the next 20–30 years of their working life. By the time they reach their early 60s, many reported little or no autonomy – and, in some cases, less than workers at the beginning of their careers. This ‘hill-shaped’ career curve was almost identical across all three rich countries. It also remained broadly the same regardless of gender, education, whether workers were full-time or part-time, length of service, and whether or not they had supervisory roles. This peak in workplace autonomy at around 40 years old seems perplexingly premature, which poses the question: are people’s perceptions accurate? Prior research has shown that older workers prefer jobs with greater autonomy, which allow them to use the judgement they have developed through years of experience. Does that mean they set the bar
higher when considering how much autonomy they have? And that, as a result, the decline in autonomy is a largely imaginary trend? Our findings suggest not. We analysed workers’ job titles and supervisory responsibilities, their salaries, and the flexibility they had on when to start, finish, and take breaks. These are more objective measures of an individual’s “For many years, we have believed that seniority in terms of age and position go hand in hand” autonomy and all revealed a similar hill-shaped pattern. In Australia, Germany, and the United Kingdom, the number of people with ‘manager’ in their job title peaked before the age of 40. Some who moved out of this category were promoted to more senior positions, such as director. However, these promotions were too few and far between to have a significant impact. Employees were far more likely to move downwards, rather than up, when the word ‘manager’ was removed from their job title. Nearly 40 per cent moved into the ‘professional’ category, more than a fifth became clerical and admin workers, and 14 per cent became technicians or skilled tradespeople. Another 10 per cent ended up in blue collar roles, such as labourers, machinery operators, and drivers. We also conducted a survey of approximately 400
TO THE CORE.
1. Older workers prefer jobs with greater autonomy that allow them to use their judgement developed through years of experience. 2. In reality, autonomy for most workers peaks around the age of 40, regardless of gender, education, and length of service. The exception are those managers who achieve repeated promotions through their career. 3. This ‘hill-shaped’ curve dramatically changes our understanding of the typical career trajectory. 4. Business leaders should be mindful that this could lead to experienced workers being less motivated and less loyal, especially as remote working and the retirement age increase. W hen Katalin Karikó won one aspect of her career dominated the headlines. While conducting her award- winning research into mRNA ‘messenger molecules’ – which enabled scientists to rapidly develop effective vaccines against Covid-19 – she was demoted not once but four times. She also had her salary cut, putting her at risk of being deported from the US. the Nobel Prize in Medicine in 2023, One reason this attracted so much attention is that it contradicted the generally accepted narrative that career progression follows a linear trajectory. For many years, we have believed that seniority in terms of age and position go hand in hand. In other words, as individuals gain more experience, they are more likely to
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