Potential impact for children and families Across partnerships in county and CCN unitary member authorities, the findings of this programme suggest that the long-term impact of implementing the system shifts identified could result in: • At least 6,000 more parents receiving support from specialist mental health, domestic violence, or substance misuse services . • Approximately 2,250 fewer children entering the care system each year (a reduction of 14.5%) compared to an assumed increasing baseline, formed by extrapolating historic trends forward. • Approximately 260 more children positively exiting the care system each year , compared to the likely trend following the reduction in children in care entering the system described above (an increase of 2.2%). These outcomes are ambitious and, as outlined in this report, will consequently require fundamental shifts across the wider children’s social care ‘ecosystem’ as a whole, not just within local authorities. This report aims to make the case for change on this scale to improve outcomes for children and families. Potential financial impact The net financial impact of achieving these outcomes would reflect financial benefits from fewer children in care, minus any additional investment needed to deliver the required support to families.
Next steps Local areas that have participated in the programme have all received their own individual analysis, which can be used to help support their local system improvement efforts. One of the main themes highlighted in this report is the potential for more effectively using data and information across agencies. In this way, families that could benefit from support could be identified, and earlier support could be offered more proactively, in a more targeted way. To help make this happen in practice, some of the authorities who took part in this work are now exploring how they could work together on a second phase of work to follow the publication of this report. This could take the form of a ‘community of practice’ model to use a consistent approach to implementing the shifts recommended in this report. By working in a consistent manner, this will accelerate learning and impact and will also help contribute towards a national evidence base for the impact of prevention in children’s social care. Any local authorities with either existing or intended activities to pursue this objective are invited to express their interest in joining such a community of practice to share learnings, collaborate across areas and contribute to the development of a national evidence base.
Reduced spend on placements for children in care In 2024/25, county and CCN unitary member authorities spent approximately £3.27bn on placements for children in care. If trends from the last decade continue unchanged to 2035, modelling suggests this would rise to £4.74bn per year, an increase of £1.47bn. This ‘do nothing’ projection has not been rigorously tested through this work, but the findings below could be combined with any wider sector modelling that informs a more sophisticated baseline. If these changes are delivered by 2028, with the appropriate policy and capacity alignment, modelling suggests that placement spend could be contained to £3.81bn per year by 2035. This is approximately £0.93bn per year less than the projected do-nothing scenario, but still represents a net increase of £540m on 2024/25 spending levels. The cumulative financial benefit compared to the do-nothing scenario, to 2035, is modelled at approximately £4.67bn. The pressure of existing overspends These potential benefits should be considered within the context of the financial pressures that councils are already facing. In 2024/25, CCN member authority spend exceeded placement budgets by approximately £550m. If trends in available budgets continue, and if the potential impacts from the five system shifts outlined above are achieved, modelling suggests that CCN member councils will not ‘break even’ until 2033, at which point a cumulative overspend of £2.73bn will have been accrued. This means that almost the entirety of the £4.67bn potential saving would, in practice, represent cost avoidance rather than cashable savings. Taken together, these figures illustrate the significant long-term financial benefits that could be achieved by delivering better outcomes for this cohort of children, and also the very real medium-term pressure that authorities will face whilst the system is reformed.
Investment to enable reform Further work beyond the scope of this programme would be needed to evaluate the investment required to enable the shifts identified. Agencies such as schools or mental health services support a wider population and a broader set of outcomes, rather than only families of children at risk of entering care. Determining whether the families considered in this work could be supported through reprioritisation of existing resources, or whether additional investment is needed given existing resource pressures already facing these services, would require a full analysis of these services. At a minimum, modelling suggests that the Children’s Social Care Prevention Grant (£280m in FY26/27 for CCN member authorities and now part of the Children, Families, and Youth Grant) should be extended beyond its current end date of 2028/29 to at least 2032/33. The modelling suggests this is the earliest point from which the benefits of a more preventative system could realistically be In the context of LGR, the findings above have been scaled on a pro rata basis to demonstrate the potential financial impact for a representative population of 500,000. Based on the modelling conducted, this would lead to: • Current expenditure on homes for children in care of £60m per annum, growing to £88m per annum by 2035 if trends continue. • Successful implementation of the shifts could contain the growth in expenditure to £71m per annum by 2035, with cumulative benefits of £86m to that point. • Current overspend compared to budget would be £10m per annum and even with the shifts successfully implemented and impacts achieved, cumulative overspend to 2035 would be £50m (with ‘break even’ still achieved in 2033). reinvested to sustain it. Scaling the impacts
18
19
Made with FlippingBook - Online catalogs