U.S. Folding Carton Market To See Measured Growth According to the Paperboard Packaging Council’s recent Trends: 2022-23 Industry Outlook and Mar- ket Data Report , U.S. demand for folding cartons will grow on average by 1.3 percent annually, with the market reaching 5.4 million tons by 2026. Output growth in non-durables, comprised of many carton-packaged goods, is expected to ex- pand by 0.8 percent over the five-year forecast. Prepared for PPC members by RISI, the Trends Report describes how overall economic trends will affect the folding carton market in the near and far terms. The report states that general econom- ic fundamentals in the U.S. economy will remain strong throughout the coming years, for example, with consumer spending growing by 1.8 percent from 2021-26. In addition to the overall economic performance, other factors play an essential role in Trends’ growth forecast for the next five years, including changing consumer spending habits, substitution away from plastic packaging, and efforts to reduce plastic waste. Shipment growth will be healthiest at the end of the five-year forecast, as the current business cycle
is predicted to peak in 2026. The total value of U.S. carton shipments is predicted to grow from an esti- mated $9.5 billion in 2021 to $13.3 billion in 2026. The folding carton industry is not without near- term challenges. A short, two-quarter downturn in economic out- put is expected in 2023, likely due to a recession becoming more of a concern as inflation eats into consumer budgets. Economic growth will provide a current for folding carton producers in the coming year, but overseas production will continue to challenge the domestic market as competition with imports persisting over the next five years. Competition from alternative packaging methods and materials will also remain a challenge for do- mestic folding carton producers, especially with in- creasing prices of boxboard substrates. On the flip side, decisions by some of the larg- est fast-food companies and municipalities across the country seem to be providing hope that paper- board packaging materials are poised to benefit from their environmentally friendly profile. Plastic substitution and environmentally friendly packaging trends should provide a tailwind for car- ton growth over the forecast.
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Flexo Market News January 30, 2023 11
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