COST INFLATION TRENDS AND PROJECTED FORECAST
• The ADUSA cost inflation in P8 continued to strengthen • Goldman Sachs forecasted food inflation to peak during Q2 • Due to the persistent influx of cost change requests, we’ve anticipated ADUSA cost inflation to peak later than that. • Our working hypothesis remains that ADUSA inflation will plateau during P7-P9. • CPI year over year trend in P7 did ease slightly as fall in energy offset food increases.
P8 Cost Inflation was
12.7%, a new high.
Current
*Recent Cost Inflation (per Business Analytics)
• It is likely that Labor costs will continue to rise • Energy and packaging prices should
Forecast
Inflation will largely depend on labor
remain high, though will remain sensitive to signs of recession
ADUSA Inflation (green = forecast)
• 2H 2022 Pork trim, pork belly, and ham are forecasted to be lower than current • Q4 of 2022 (end of North American growing season) could see some opportunity in the soybean market (vegetable oil) • Eggs likely will remain high throughout
Jan Feb Mar
Apr
May Jun Jul
Aug Sep Oct
Nov Dec
2021
1.4% 1.6% 1.4% 1.2% 1.0% 1.0% 3.0% 3.5% 4.6% 5.1% 5.5% 5.8%
2022
7.3% 8.4% 9.7% 9.8% 10.8% 11.2% 12.0% 12.5% 11.7% 10.8% 10.0% 9.1%
2023
8.3% 7.6% 6.8% 5.0% 4.5% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0%
2024
3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0%
2022, forecast calls for price improvement in P1/P2 of 2023
• Turkey could have potential in the back half of 2023, will likely get worse before it gets better
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