state of the stainless steel nation
perishable goods. What’s at stake isn’t just trade volume, it’s jobs, economic momentum, and long-term investor confidence.
help in the long run, especially through BRICS or the African Continental Free Trade Agreement, but those are not fast- acting solutions. “Even the lower GDP loss estimate would wipe out a third of 2025’s projected growth.”
How would this affect the overall economy?
Estimates suggest the damage could be between 0.3% and 1.3% of GDP. In a country where the economy is expected to grow by just 1.5% in 2025, even the lower estimate would wipe out a third of that growth. South Africa needs at least 4% growth to generate meaningful employment, so any loss at this scale is not just a setback, it’s a red flag for deeper structural pain. Beyond immediate job losses, the ripple effects would slow recovery, reduce investor appetite, and weaken industrial output. “What’s at stake isn’t just trade volume - it’s jobs, economic momentum, and investor confidence.”
What’s the current outlook for the stainless steel industry specifically?
The stainless steel sector will feel the impact through its links to the automotive market, especially in products like exhaust systems and catalytic converters. While the local stainless steel sector saw over 20% growth in apparent domestic consumption 2024 - i.e. the stainless steel used by the local value adding sector - Sassda doesn’t expect the same in 2025. Still, the industry is starting from a strong position, and that foundation should help it weather some of the turbulence, at least in the short term.
Can South Africa negotiate a way out of this situation?
Not easily. South Africa has limited leverage in negotiations with the US. It’s a small contributor to US imports and, diplomatically, its alignment with global powers like Russia and China complicates things further. Trade diplomacy is driven by relationships, and right now, South Africa hasn’t prioritised political ties with the US in a way that could help defuse the tension. Diversifying trade partnerships could
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Issue 2 – 2025
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