Policy & Compliance
Amid dismay over sharply rising bunker prices since the start of hostilities, there are calls for greater regulation regarding how shipping lines recoup these extra costs Impact of Gulf con fl ict on fuel surcharges
$886 per tonne on 4 May, an all- time high. Closing the Strait of Hormuz also appears to be impacting the frequency of changes to emergency fuel surcharges announced by carriers. The recent increases in oil prices, which then impact fuel costs, seem to lead to more frequent adjustments to the EFS. Typically, bunker rates have a delay of three to four months between the change in fuel cost and what is charged to the customer. Some carriers are introducing changes to fuel surcharges more frequently and rapidly. In addition, the lines are imposing surcharges on inland cartage and intermodal activities. Whilst it is accepted that fuel prices have increased costs, to what extent is not clear – there is an opaqueness in calculating the final surcharge. The longer the conflict and the subsequent disruption lasts, the greater the impact of increasing costs. Reports indicate that Maersk is facing increased costs of about $500 million a month. The full financial effects of the war, due to timings, were not felt in Q1 2026, but will impact Q2 results. In addition to the rising cost of crude oil, there are issues stemming from the limited availability of bunker fuel, regional price dislocations and the need to move
A t time of writing, the current Gulf con fl ict was approaching three months old and the uncertainty stemming from it continued to reverberate throughout the global maritime sector. Perhaps the single greatest issue is the threat to the freedom of navigation caused by the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. However, there are commercial pressures building with the potential to cause friction between shipping lines and their customers. The first tension is emergency fuel surcharges (EFS) introduced by carriers in response to higher bunkering costs. Bunker prices of the two main types of fuel used in the deep-sea maritime industry are already near the highs seen after Russia invaded Ukraine, and the peak may not have yet been reached. The main concerns are
increased costs and, worse still, that vessels may not be able to get the necessary fuel where they need it. Price surge The average price of very low sulphur fuel oil (VLSFO) across the top 20 bunkering hubs was $1,005 per tonne on 30 April, according to data from Ship & Bunker . That is double the cost prior to the war and the highest price since July 2022, after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. VLSFO pricing is driven by crude oil pricing. Brent closed up 10% on Thursday 30 April at $101.44 per barrel. If the strait does not open soon, VLSFO pricing could increase further. The average price of high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) across the top 20 hubs was $862 per tonne on 30 April, more than double the pre- war average. The HSFO average hit
“ There are commercial pressures building with the potential to cause friction between shipping lines and their customers
12 | June 2026
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