FP FORECAST 2026 Your Workplace Law Guide 2025 Recap + 2026 Predictions
TABLE OF CONTENTS
AS WE CLOSE OUT 2024 AND LOOK AHEAD TO 2025, ONE THING IS CLEAR: THIS HAS BEEN A YEAR LIKE NO OTHER. From a groundbreaking Supreme Court ruling to a pivotal election result that will ush- er in a new administration, employers faced seismic shifts that demanded sharp focus, careful planning, and swift action. Through it all, we were by your side – helping you navigate the challenges, capitalize on opportunities, and keep your business on track. If there’s one takeaway from this past year, it’s that uncertainty is a constant. But the good news? You can always count on us to provide clarity. That’s why the FP Forecast report is one of my favorite resources we produce each year. Inside, you’ll find a comprehensive look back at 2024’s biggest developments in workplace law and the practical steps you need to take to adapt. From regulatory upheavals to litigation trends, we’ve summarized the most critical events and shared actionable guidance that goes beyond the obvious – rooted in our deep understanding of your business and your goals. And just as important, we’ve taken a hard look at predicting what 2025 will bring. From the growing influence of AI to the increasingly global reach of business and the rise of international law’s importance, we’re tracking the trends that will shape the year ahead. You’ll also find updates on the ever-evolving privacy landscape – one of the most complex issues businesses face today. Our goal is simple: to arm you with insights that not only help you react to change but also stay ahead of it. We hope our FP Forecast report provides the foundation you need to plan for a successful 2025. And as always, our team will be here every step of the way with the sharp thinking and practical advice you’ve come to expect. Here’s to navigating the future together.
Affirmative Action Agriculture AI, Data & Analytics Auto Dealers Benefits & Tax California Construction Education
Litigation & Trials Manufacturing MedTech/Life Sciences Mexico Non-Profit & Tax-Exempt Organizations
Pay Equity & Transparency PEO Advocacy & Protection Privacy & Cyber Consumer Privacy Data Protection Reputation & Crisis Management Retail Sports Staffing Technology Wage and Hour Workplace Safety
Higher Education Employee Benefits & Tax Employee Defection & Trade Secrets Energy Government Relations
Healthcare Hospitality
Immigration International Japan Labor Relations
John Polson Chairman and Managing Partner Fisher Phillips
AFFIRMATIVE ACTION
LOOKING AHEAD TO 2026
2025 PREDICTIONS RECAP
Return to Employer-Friendly Rules Now that the Biden administration is coming to an end, we don’t think the incoming Trump administration will pick up the legal battles over the OT rule, and the
Last year, we predicted that the Biden DOL would move swiftly to finalize a higher exempt salary threshold for the FLSA’s so-called “white collar” overtime exemptions. We also anticipated that certain states and employer advocates would challenge the rule in business-friendly jurisdictions like Texas and Florida. We were right. In November, a federal judge in Texas blocked the rule nationwide, holding that the DOL exceeded its authority by raising the threshold too high (in two phases from $35K to $44k and then $59K) and allowing for automatic adjustments every three years. Court Halts Federal Overtime Rule Nationwide We knew the DOL would continue to partner with other agencies in 2024, particularly regarding investigations and data sharing. Indeed, in August, NLRB General Counsel Jennifer Abruzzo signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with the DOJ Antitrust Division, the DOL, and the FTC “to strengthen worker protections and fair competition by collaborating on labor issues in antitrust merger investigations.” The agencies have agreed to similar partnerships over the past few years – but we do expect the incoming administration to focus less on investigations and enforcement and more on employer education and community outreach. More Agency Partnerships We also correctly predicted a heightened focus at the federal and state level on child labor laws, since the DOL reported a 70% increase in the number of children illegally employed by companies in recent years. Although Florida relaxed work restrictions for older teens in July, other states, including California and Illinois, took steps to encourage compliance with child labor laws and fill in gaps in existing law, respectively. Focus on Child Labor Laws
threshold will remain $35k for now—although we do anticipate that the DOL will take steps to modestly increase the salary threshold (as it did during the first Trump administration). This means employers have some critical decisions to make on how to move forward with compensation plans, particularly since many employers already complied with the now-halted phase one of the rule, which raised the threshold to $44k. We also expect the DOL to drop a Biden-era independent contractor standard and return to the more lenient rule issued during Trump’s first term. You can read more about those rules here. Similarly, we think the DOL will shift back to its pre-Biden, more employer-friendly joint employer standard. More Lawsuits from Business Groups In addition to the Trump administration returning to employer-friendly rules, we expect businesses to continue challenging Biden-era rules that strained operations. Notably, SCOTUS issued its blockbuster ruling in 2024 that overturned the famous Chevron doctrine and held that courts shouldn’t defer to an agency’s interpretation of an ambiguous federal statute. Already, the district court that blocked the overtime rule in November cited to the SCOTUS decision in its ruling. We expect even more litigation in 2025 challenging DOL rules under the new Supreme Court precedent. Support for Federal Minimum Wage Hike
Although President-elect Trump criticized the idea of increasing the federal minimum wage as harmful to small businesses during his 2020 campaign, the political winds have shifted a bit since then and his 2024 campaign supported “raising wages.” It would not be surprising to see a push for a slight increase to the $7.25/hour federal minimum wage – but nowhere near the $15/hour rate supported by the Biden administration. Of course, Trump would need the approval of Congress to carry out any federal minimum wage hike, so that must be taken into account. Uptick in State and Local Activity We predict that the federal government will ease its enforcement efforts in 2025. On the flipside, we expect to see more activity at the state and local level. As employers continue to face costly wage and hour actions, you should note that state and local requirements can vary significantly — which makes it critical to stay informed about workplace trends in the locations where you operate.
Kathleen McLeod Caminiti New Jersey/New York Partner and Co-Chair, Wage and Hour Practice Group kcaminiti@fisherphillips.com
J. Hagood Tighe Columbia Partner and Co-Chair, Wage and Hour Practice Group htighe@fisherphillips.com
OUR PREDICTIONS WERE MOSTLY RIGHT
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