the rennie landscape - Q4 2019

rates

SLOWING INFLATION CAN BE SEEN FROM EAST TO WEST AND IN BETWEEN In what is yet another sign that economic growth is moderating in Canada, inflation rates are down from coast to coast.

From the perspective of the Bank of Canada, annual price inflation has not presented much risk to the Canadian economy for many years, with the country’s annual rate of price growth ranging from a low of +1.0% to a high of 2.4% over the past half-decade. Of course, inflation varies from province to province because it varies from region to region within each province, with metro areas often experiencing higher-than-average inflation rates due to their typically more dynamic economies versus their non-metro peers.

Underscoring this point is Metro Vancouver, which has experienced inflation to the tune of 2.3% in the year ending in October 2019; this is 22% higher than Canada’s 1.9% over the same period. Notably, though, inflation in Metro Vancouver has come down in the past year (from an annual rate of 2.7%). Even with wages growing more slowly in the near-term, workers will benefit from relatively modest inflation via continued increases in their real (that is, inflation-adjusted) incomes.

A SIGH OF RELIEF FOR CONSUMERS: INFLATION ABATES

3.5%

3.0%

3.0%

2.7%

2.7%

2.5%

2.5%

2.4%

2.3%

1.9%

2.0%

1.7%

1.6%

1.5%

1.4%

1.0%

0.5%

0.0%

CALGARY

EDMONTON

VANCOUVER

CANADA

TORONTO

Q   Q 

Q   Q 

SOURCE: STATISTICS CANADA DATA: PAST 12-MONTH CHANGE IN CONSUMER PRICE INDEX

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