demographics
CANADIANS RIDIN' WEST TIL THEY CAN'T NO MORE
Net interprovincial migration to BC was positive yet again in Q 3 2019, marking a virtually-uninterrupted run of 26 quarters that the rest of Canada has moved westward.
With virtually no barriers to movement within Canada, interprovincial migration flows are highly correlated to relative levels of provincial (or more appropriately, regional) economic performance. As such, BC has experienced net outflows of people when economic growth paled in comparison to its nearest neighbours Alberta and Saskatchewan, as well as Ontario—1998 to 2002 being one such period. Lower net inflows were also seen when high and rising commodity prices boosted the prairie economies above the rate of growth achieved in BC.
Economic growth in BC has been comparatively robust over the recent past, so it’s no surprise that the province has been a magnet for the rest of Canada. In Q3 2019, BC experienced net inflows of population from almost all provinces and territories, including Saskatchewan and Manitoba, which together accounted for 71% of the net inflow to BC in this most recent quarter. Given sluggish productivity gains and an aging population, British Columbia will to some extent depend on a continuation of this trend if it hopes to extend its recent run of economic expansion.
INTERPROVINCIAL MIGRATION: IS WEST THE BEST?
1,000
BC’S TOTAL Q NET INTERPROVINCIAL MIGRATION: , 3rd-Highest in Canada
800
708
684
600
455
400
200
190
164
34
19
13
0
-6
-86
-200
-205
-400
NS
NB
YK
QC
NL
NWT/NVT
PEI
AB
ON
MB
SK
PREV Q AVG
Q
SOURCE: QUARTERLY DEMOGRAPHIC ESTIMATES, STATISTICS CANADA
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