housing
05. housing
Metro Vancouver’s rate of housing completions has been robust in recent years, and it must be maintained to support a growing population.
IS VANCOUVER ADDING ENOUGH HOMES TO GROW?
Since 2002, the ratio of housing completions to population in Metro Vancouver has risen steeply, going from 440.9 in January 2002 to 839.8 in October 2019. This 90% gain over the period compares to declines of 7% in Edmonton, 36% in Calgary, and 45% in Toronto. From the perspective of housing supply, this is a positive trend for Vancouver. But is it enough? Without answering this directly, it’s worth noting that Metro Vancouver is on pace to achieve its second-most completions in any year since 1972. This is good news to be sure- -however, while the number of homes we’re completing is of the utmost importance in the context of discussions of housing supply, the type of homes we’re completing matters almost as much. Why? Quite simply, because single-family completions are not adding to our dwelling stock. Here in Metro Vancouver we have actually been losing single-family housing (between the most recent two Census enumerations
of 2011 and 2016), for example, the region’s detached stock fell by 18,780 homes on a net basis), so any single-family start or completion that shows up in the data typically is offset by a demolition. In such cases, single- family completions cannot be seen to be accommodating net growth in population on their own as they simply fulfill replacement demand. Additionally, the greater the share of multi-family homes is for a given number of completions, the less capacity that stock has to accommodate population growth, with these homes tending to be smaller than their detached counterparts. On these points it’s worth noting that in 2019 to-date, single-family homes have accounted for 18% of Metro Vancouver’s completions- -the region’s lowest share on record. This means that the homes we are seeing complete represent net additions to our stock (arguably) more than anytime in the recent past, which is positive. The trick will now be to keep up the pace.
36
rennie.com
Made with FlippingBook - professional solution for displaying marketing and sales documents online