the rennie landscape - Q4 2019

economy

JOB EXPANSION IS SLOWING, BUT THE EMPLOYMENT BASE IS GROWING Employment growth is slowing across the country after many months of robust gains and Metro Vancouver is not immune to the trend.

After many months of experiencing some of the most robust labour market conditions in the country, Metro Vancouver has more recently seen the pace of job growth lessen. On a year-over-year basis in October, employment in Metro Vancouver grew by only 1.1%, putting it in the bottom one-third of metro area growth in Canada. This in part impacted BC’s overall rate of job growth, which fell to 1.3%. The province’s headline figure was however supported by 3.9% employment growth in Abbotsford-Mission and 3.7% growth in Kelowna (BC’s only other metro area, Victoria, grew by 1.5%).

The 16,100 jobs added across Metro Vancouver (on a net basis) over the past 12 months represented only 4.1% of the growth seen nationwide, and was almost half of the region’s 7.7% share of Canada’s jobs in October 2019. Indeed, current conditions benefit Vancouver’s workers a little less than they did earlier in 2019. But if you ask employers—many of whom have struggled to fill jobs for the past couple of years— they’ll tell you this is a welcome change.

AFTER MONTHS OF FLOWS, METRO VANCOUVER'S JOB GROWTH EBBS

10%

8.6%

8%

6%

3.7% 3.9%

4%

2.1%

1.5%

2%

1.3%

1.1%

0%

-2%

-4%

-6%

SOURCE: LABOUR FORCE SURVEY, STATISTICS CANADA DATA: PAST 12-MONTH CHANGE; 3-MONTH MOVING AVERAGE, SEASONALLY-ADJUSTED

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