CHART 3.2 GLOBAL AVERAGE BENCHMARK COPPER PRICES AND QUEENSLAND EXPLORATION SPEND 2002-25 Source: Office of the Chief Economist, Resources and Energy Quarterly; FRED;ABS 5368.0
10,000
180
9,000
160
8,000
140
7,000
120
6,000
100
5,000
80
4,000
60
3,000
40
2,000
20
1,000
0
Average global copper price (US$/t) (LHS)
Queensland copper exploration (A$m) (RHS)
After seven years of consistent growth, Queensland copper exploration expenditure recorded a further decline of 11% in 2024-25, following last year’s contraction of 12%. In the context of rising costs, this reduction in spend is likely to reflect an even sharper moderation in underlying activity. This is despite copper prices edging higher, with the average benchmark increasing by 7% over the year, reflecting tight global supply and strong forward demand. Copper’s role in electrification spanning renewable generation, transmission infrastructure, energy storage, and electric vehicles ensures its strategic significance, but recent exploration momentum in Queensland has clearly moderated. This is reflected across all states with Australian copper exploration expenditure falling 15.1% in 2024-25.
CHART 3.3 GLOBAL AVERAGE BENCHMARK COAL PRICES AND COAL EXPLORATION SPEND IN QUEENSLAND 2002-25 Source: Office of the Chief Economist, Resources and Energy Quarterly; ABS; McCloskey.
800
450
400
700
350
600
300
500
250
400
200
300
150
200
100
100
50
0
0
Thermal coal price (US$/t) (LHS) Metallurgical coal price (US$/t) (LHS) Queensland coal exploration (A$m) (RHS)
In 2024–25, Queensland’s coal exploration expenditure fell sharply by 18% amid steep declines in benchmark prices - thermal coal dropped 11% and metallurgical coal 31% - returning to levels last seen between 2010-11 and 2016-19 after the COVID-19 and Ukraine conflict highs. This price correction, combined with rising costs, reduced investor confidence and exploration activity, signals a contraction across the sector. The downturn has been compounded by Queensland’s coal royalty regime, with some projects forced to scale back or enter care and maintenance. While designed to capture windfalls in strong markets, the system has magnified financial strain during the current downturn, undermining industry viability and investor confidence in Queensland’s resources sector.
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