02. MACROECONOMICS & STRATEGY
Is this time different ?
Payroll around the time the “ Sahm point” was hit (in %, 3M ann) – United States
Wages growth – United States (in %, 3M ann)
Chart Title
Chart Title
6
2,0
1,5
1,0
5
0,5
0,0
4
-0,5
-1,0
3
-1,5
-2,0
2
-2,5
-3,0
1
T-3 T-2 T-1
T
T+1 T+2 T+3 T+4 T+5
1990
2001
2008
2024
0
Sahm Recession Indicator signals the start of a recession when the three-month
10-23 12-23 02-24 04-24 06-24 08-24 10-24 12-24
moving average of the national unemployment rate (U3) rises by 0.50 percentage
points or more relative to the minimum of the three-month averages from the
3M (pay) % ann.
previous 12 months.
Public
Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, AXA IM Research, Macrobond, Rothschild & Co Asset Management – 12/2024 This presentation contains historical market data. Historical market trends are not a reliable indicator of future market behaviour. These data are provided for illustrative purposes only. Depending on the date of publication, the information presented may differ from the updated data.
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