02. MACROECONOMICS & STRATEGY
Why we could be wrong
➢
A sharp drop in interest rates due to: ✓ Disinflation ✓ Continue high productivity boosted by AI ✓ Sharp drop in energy cost
➢ A decent level of growth thanks to: ✓ Employment growth ✓ Wages boosted by productivity without inflation ✓ Continued wealth effect ✓ Investment growth
➢
No Fed mistake: ✓
Data dependency could be risky
✓ Are high real rates forecasting potential growth or default risk?
➢
Trump 2.0 ✓
More pragmatic as President
Public
70
Source : Rothschild & Co Asset Management – 2024
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