TABLE: 4.B.1
The study area has seen considerably less development, mostly scattered throughout the area. A small cluster of new homes, however, have been constructed on Caddell Street. These homes are currently valued by Zillow under $210,000 and are roughly 1,000 to 1,200 SF in size. The home at 215 Caddell Street sold in February 2019 for $145,000 and Zillow estimates that this home has appreciated to $204,000 - an increase of a 40% ($59,000) in two years. Another small residential development that is currently under construction is located off E. Perry Street in the northern part of the study area. This is a small 14-lot subdivision on Trinity Park Drive. The model home is listed at $325,000 for a 4-bedroom, 3-bath single family home with 2,019 SF. By way of comparison, of the 19 homes built in the study area since 2010, the average size has been 1,872 SF with an assessed value of $214,803, a difference of $110,197. Since 2000, the new single-family homes constructed in other parts of the Town were much larger, between 2,400 and 2,600 SF on average and are assessed at $345,413 per home. Residential Sales Trends RKG Associates analyzed recent residential sales trends between 2016 and 2020 for the Northeast Community and the Town of Wake Forest. The data used for this analysis was obtained from Redfin, a national residential brokerage firm that reports Multiple Listing Service (MLS) sales data. The data show that the study area has averaged roughly 25 home sales per year, which accounts for 5.5% of all single-family properties in the study area. In most healthy housing markets, between 4% and 6% of the total housing stock will go on the “for sale” market annually. While this is a positive indicator, the Northeast Community study area accounted for only 2.3% of the Town’s total home sales during this 5-year period.
Since 2000, the study area has seen very little new housing development – only 15.7% (81 properties) of the residential properties have been developed over the past 20 years. By way of comparison, almost 73% of the Town’s 13,320 residential properties have been developed since 2000, which is 4.6 times the rate of the study area. Most of this new development has consisted of primarily single-family homes. The Traditions subdivision, which is located just east of the Northeast Community, has seen a tremendous amount of new development since 2010 (Figure 4.B.2). In fact, more than half of this residential community has been developed since 2016. Real estate values in this community are considerably higher and the homes and lots much larger on average. The single-family attached homes run just under $300,000 with 2,200 SF. The smaller lot detached homes range from $350,000 to $460,000 with sizes between 2,100 SF to 3,200 SF floor plans. Finally, the large lot homes (1/4 acre) homes are 3,000 to 3,500 SF and some are priced in the low $500,000s.
Annual Residential Sales (2016-2020)
Northeast Neighborhood and Town of Wake Forest
Year
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Avg./Total % of Town
Average Home Sales Price Northeast Neighborhood $110,253 $125,367 $157,169 $176,207 $189,411 $159,539
48.2%
Town of Wake Forest
$296,602 $313,576 $328,443 $339,390 $361,612 $331,326
100.0%
Annual Sales Northeast Neighborhood
13
15
21
22
28
99
2.3%
Town of Wake Forest
662
736
847
984
1,009
4,238
100.0%
Sales Value Per SF Northeast Neighborhood
$97
$113
$118
$135
$144
$126
96.6%
Town of Wake Forest
$118
$123
$129
$132
$141
$130
100.0%
Average Units Size (SF) Northeast Neighborhood
1,179
1,092
1,354
1,346
1,339
1,285
50.0%
Town of Wake Forest
2,490
2,561
2,568
2,607
2,607
2,573
100.0%
Credit: Redfin and RKG Associates, Inc. 2020
Those findings are consistent with the study area’s limited new home construction activity presented in the previous section. The homes selling in the Northeast Community study area have had an average sales price of $159,539 over the past five years, which was only 48.2% of the Town average price of $331,336 (Table 4.B.1). In that regard, homes are still selling at affordable levels and are accessible to moderate income households. However, the potential for Northeast homes to remain affordable in the future is being threatened by annual price changes, which have increased by 48% since 2016 on a per square foot basis. Based on average home sales prices, regardless of building size, average prices have increased from $110,000 in 2016 to $189,000 in 2020, an increase of 72% in five years, which far outpaces the Town’s sales price increases of 19.5% and 21.9% respectively.
As shown in Figure 4.B.3, most of the Northeast home sales range from $150,000 to $250,000. Outside the boundaries, sales prices jump up above $250,000 and there are clusters of homes in the Traditions development that have sold for more than $400,000. The Redfin data shows that the biggest reason for the price difference between Northeast Community home sales and those elsewhere in Town is age of the housing and their relative size, in terms of building square footage. Study area homes sell at prices per square foot that are very close the to the Town average, but the homes are half the size (Table 4.B.1). Home size is one way to maintain housing affordability, but it restricts the diversity of housing choices to mostly entry level homes, which tend to be 3-bedroom homes or smaller.
4
4
For Sale: $325,000 4 bedrooms, 3 baths, 2,019 SF, 801 Trinity Park Dr., Wake Forest, NC 27587 Credit: Raleigh Realty, 2021
Chapter 4: Appendix
Northeast Community Plan
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