RETAIL MARKET ASSESSMENT
This corresponds with the fact that there are plenty of shopping centers within three miles from the intersection just outside of the study area. This also indicates that the retail supply in the 1-mile and 3-mile radii areas is under- represented across several retail categories, and thus there could be an opportunity to provide retail space to accommodate unmet retail demands and capture some of this spending. The 5-mile market area has a significant retail leakage, which means there is not enough retail supply to meet the demand of households within that 5-mile ring. Over 90% of all retail categories show sales leakages within this area. This indicates a shortage of retail options in general and that residents in this area most likely must travel to the 1-mile and 3-mile radii areas for their shopping needs. This is not surprising given that the 5-mile radius includes much of the rural areas, where there are very few shopping options, and that most of the retail developments concentrate in the Town of Wake Forest within the 3-mile radius. RKG also identified major shopping centers in the region to understand where households in the region go to shop. There is a cluster of major shopping centers and grocery stores/supermarkets along Route 1 in the Town of Wake Forest, less than three miles from the intersection outside of the study area, which is a 3- to 5-minute drive. In total, these major shopping centers, which are mostly anchored by grocery stores, account for a combined retail square
RKG analyzed the retail supply/demand balance based on household spending in the 1-, 3-, and 5-mile zones from the intersection to understand the total retail spending potential from households in each of these geographic areas (Map 3-5). A retail supply/demand gap analysis compares household demand for various retail goods against the retail sales captured by local establishments within the same geographic area. Consumer demand is measured as the amount of spending that local households do in various retail merchandise categories. When household demand or a given merchandise category is greater than the captured sales of local establishments, this indicates that nearby establishments are not meeting the demand of households. As such, people are forced to drive outside their primary market areas to purchase goods that they cannot obtain within those primary markets. For example, if the households in a given market area demand $1 million in grocery store purchases, but there are only three convenience stores within the market capturing $250,000 in grocery sales, this means that $750,000 in household demand has leaked from the primary market as people drive to grocery stores in other locations outside their primary market. Retail market theory suggests that, if a grocery store were located closer to these households, residents would not have to drive outside their primary markets to satisfy their demand. In other instances, local establishments can capture retail sales that exceed the demand from local households. A common example is a regional shopping mall, which captures retail demand from a much larger regional market than just those houses located near the mall. In this case, sales are “imported” to the mall from a much larger area.
The 1-mile radius covers the Northeast Community study area, and the 3- and 5-mile radii areas extend beyond the Wake County boundary to the north. Usually, one mile is approximately 20-minute walking distance, three miles represent a five- to ten- minute drive time (depending on traffic), and five miles are thought to be beyond ten minutes drive time. Retail Analysis Findings The areas that are within the 1- and 3-miles of the Northeast Community both have retail surpluses when you look at total retail spending categories combined, indicating that there is an ample retail supply to satisfy retail demand from households in these geographies. However, in real life, people demand specific goods for their daily lives and if they are not available nearby, they must travel to obtain them. Such is the case in the Northeast Community. The sales surplus/leakage by retail category reveals that over 63% of all retail merchandise categories within the 1- and 3-mile distance have sales leakages, while most of the sales surpluses concentrate in several categories including: • General merchandise store/department stores,
Retail Analysis Approach Retail markets are often analyzed by examining consumer spending demand from several concentric distances (1-, 3- and 5-miles) from site location or roadway intersection. As the Northeast Community study area is somewhat isolated from a roadway connection standpoint, and not a natural commercial location for retail and service businesses, RKG Associates analyzed a 1-, 3- and 5-mile radius around the intersection of E. Roosevelt Avenue and S. White Street. This is generally recognized as the closest commercial intersection to the Northeast Community. This road intersection is located near the downtown commercial district and has direct access to Highway 98, connecting to Route 1, which has good access and strong locational attributes. The intersection has several commercial properties, with some vacant and underutilized buildings that could be ripe for redevelopment in the future. As a rule, many commercial operations are dependent on vehicle or foot traffic and visibility to drive sales activity. Typically, 15,000 average daily vehicle trips are the threshold needed to attract most smaller national chain stores or fast-food restaurants such as McDonald’s, Starbucks, or similar establishments. According to North Carolina Department of Transportation (NCDOT), the primary intersection supports average annual average daily traffic counts (AADT) of 11,500. The lower traffic volumes may not be ideally suited for national retail operator but could support local businesses. These lower traffic volumes would appeal to more locally owned retailers, service businesses and restaurants.
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• Health and personal care stores and
• Restaurants/other eating places.
Chapter 4: Appendix
Northeast Community Plan
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