medtech startup company Biobot Analytics has published research submitting that viral loads in the wastewater from an area in Boston suggests at least 2,300 people in the water treatment area are infected with COVID-19, roughly five times more than the official 446 confirmed cases. No one wants to go to a hospital or a doctor’s office right now unless they absolutely have to, so it makes sense that the vast majority of these infections go unreported. And that’s not all we know about how fast this virus spreads. Although nobody in Washington, D.C. wants to mention it, one group of people was thoroughly tested. This group offers a striking example of what happens when you lock people into their homes after this virus has been circulating amongst them. We should have told everyone else: Go about your lives. We know exactly how many people on the Diamond Princess cruise ship were infected. We know when the virus appeared on the boat. And
5, which was only four days after the first case was discovered in Hong Kong. This virus spreads like wildfire. On the other hand, even in a population that is much, much older than average and that featured substantial population-wide comorbidities like high blood pressure and obesity, only 12 people died. That’s 1.7% of the people who got infected. Yes, that’s much worse than the average flu – but not if you adjust for the age and relative health of the population. Researchers who have studied the cruise ship outbreak in detail estimate that this virus will have 0.5% lethality in the general U.S. population – which is, again, comparable to the regular annual flu. We have already seen that the initial forecasts of more than 2 million deaths are complete nonsense. When the president ordered the economy to shut down, he claimed that if we didn’t take this step of cowering in our homes, then millions would die. “People will be dropping dead on the subway,” Trump claimed, as though Ebola was on the loose. All bullshit. This virus is definitely dangerous to the old and the sick. To everyone else, it’s going to be a nonevent... just like any other flu season. Here’s a prediction. In a “bad year” for the flu, between 50,000 and 100,000 Americans die from the virus. I’m willing to bet that by the end of this year, roughly the same number of people will have died from this virus. And I’m also willing to
we know exactly how many people died . There is no dispute about these facts, whatsoever. There were 3,711 people on the boat
(passengers and crew). We know that 712 people were infected, despite restricting everyone to their cabins as soon as the infection was discovered. That’s an infection rate of almost 20% in a matter of days. This is a very, very contagious virus. Keep in mind, the lockdown on the boat began on February
28
April 2020
Made with FlippingBook - Online magazine maker