A glass of fine wine, a celebratory dinner at a investment get attention—but immigration is often overlooked, even though it plays a major role in keeping the economy strong. While immigrants come to the United States seeking to improve their lives, once here, they can relieve workforce shortages, start new businesses, drive innovation, pay taxes and spend money, thus supporting the economy in a host of meaningful ways. San Rafael economist Jon Haveman has explored immigration’s restaurant and a brand-new house have something in common—chances are, immigrants are somewhere in the picture. And yet, immigration is an outlier in most discussions about the economy. Production, businesses, consumers and place in the economy in depth and evaluates related policy issues. A principal at Marin Economic Consulting, which provides reports on economic performance to government agencies and economic development organizations, Haveman has served as chief economist on the President’s Council of Economic Advisers, was chief economist for the Bay Area Council Economic Institute and has been a member of the board of the National Economic Education Delegation (NEED) for nine years. The purpose of NEED is to provide accurate economic information and give people a better understanding of how policy decisions affect the economy—enabling voters to evaluate claims about the economy and understand what the implications of proposed policies would be, should they go into effect. “It would be better if the electorate had a better understanding of the issues. Most of the narrative … from an
economic perspective, is just plain wrong,” says Haveman. “We have a dearth of workers in the United States,” he explains, and immigrants help to keep the economy growing by working jobs that are unappealing to people born here and would otherwise remain vacant. Immigrants filled two-thirds of the new jobs created after the COVID-19 pandemic, and Haveman predicts that by 2042 the need for immigrants will be even greater—because the population of American-born workers will slow dramatically due to lowering birthrates and baby boomers aging out of the workforce. “That will slow the extent to which we can grow goods and services,” he says. Without immigrant labor, he believes that building housing would be more expensive, the hospitality industry would be shorthanded, and agriculture would lack workers in fields and vineyards.
A growing need Nott all people who come here to work plan to stay
permanently. Karissa Kruse, CEO and president of Sonoma County Winegrowers, reports that 6,300 full-time employees are working in vineyards in Sonoma County, and 1,800 are part of the H-2A guest worker program. “It’s been an evolution over the past 15 years,” she says, as farms and ranches have moved toward a greater full-time workforce and fewer part-time workers. “The notion of a seasonal workforce has gone away,” she says. In addition, increasing competition from other fields such as construction and the cannabis industry is making it more difficult to find employees, who fill a variety of roles, such as pruning, harvesting, vegetation management and wildfire mitigation. To fill full-time positions, owners have increasingly
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44 NorthBaybiz
December 2025
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