EXECUTIVE INSIGHTS
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6. THERE IS A MORTGAGE CLIFF, BUT LENDERS ARE GETTING AHEAD OF IT Homeowners will need to renew cheap mortgages taken out in 2021, and around 6 per cent will see a 40 per cent or more increase in their mortgage payments, explained Tal. Delinquency rates are starting to rise, but, he said, they are stabilizing at 60 days, not rising to 90 days: “Why? Because banks are calling you and saying, listen, you are behind. Let’s have coffee on us. Let’s discuss.” “This is going to be a micro story, not a macro story.” 7. POPULATION GROWTH WILL STABILIZE AT 1.5 PER CENT The previous 3.5 per cent growth was completely unsustainable, Tal stated. “It was crazy. We simply were unable to deal with it. Now it’s going to go back to 1 per cent, 1.5 per cent, which will be very supportive for your business.”
8. POLITICIANS SEE A PICTURE OF HOUSING STARTS THAT DOESN’T TELL THE FULL STORY The CMHC calculates housing starts when development reaches grade level, not at the start of digging, which is 18 months later. “The starts that we are seeing now are the starts from 18 months ago,” said Tal. “Housing starts in Canada, in my opinion, are basically close to zero.” And this matters because Tal predicts demand will rise in the condo market as prices come down and households “decouple”. “I believe that many of those small units will be purchased by those people who are living in a doubling-up situation. I’m actually very optimistic about the speed at which the condo market will clear. It’ll take two years, but we need to build.” 9. THERE IS LIGHT AT THE END OF THE TUNNEL According to Tal, time is not on President Trump’s side: “We have many pockets of resistance in the US, starting with the war, continuing with food and energy prices, and extending to the international community, the legal system, and the economy itself. “Good luck to President Trump in November 2026. Don’t look at these threats. They are reflecting a temporary situation. I’m actually optimistic about 2027. I believe the fog will clear in the second half of 2026, and I see 2026 as a transition year between something good and something better.”
Q&A with Vancouver Real Estate Forum Co-chairs
WHAT WAS THE MOOD OF THE CONFERENCE THIS YEAR, AND HOW DOES THIS COMPARE TO LAST YEAR? Ted: I would almost categorize it as a seesaw. There were times when you felt there were a lot of challenges. And then there were times when you felt we’re turning the corner. A few people commented that, as tough a regulatory environment as it’s been in British Columbia, it seems people, politicians, and governing officials are waking up to the fact that maybe we need to make the process of moving forward economically a little easier and less ridden with red tape. Cynthia: I agree with Ted, it was a mixed bag. A level of acceptance and realism has set into the market, with some panels highlighting the negatives, whereas others, like the global panel as an example, discussed reviewing investment opportunities around the world, comparing Canada and BC with other regions, and seeing our market as steady, safe and desirable. It seemed obvious that sometimes, we’re so close to our market that we only see the problems. There are some green shoots.
■ Alex Gray
Ted Mildon Vice President,
Cynthia Jagger Executive Vice President, Capital Markets, CBRE Limited
Office Leasing and Operations, Oxford Properties Group
As Co-chairs of the Vancouver forum, Ted Mildon and Cynthia Jagger steered the conversation. These are their key takeaways.
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Canadian Real Estate Forums / Spring 2026 10
Canadian Real Estate Forums / Spring 2026 11
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