PLATINUM OUTLOOK
Platinum’s recovery has improved the commercial picture for South Africa’s platinum group metals (PGMs) sector, but the current cycle is not a simple return to boom conditions. Higher platinum prices are helping the sector, but the harder test is whether mines can produce and deliver metal reliably while power, costs, logistics, security and ageing shafts remain under pressure. South Africa remains central to mined platinum supply, with the United States Geological Survey (USGS) estimating South African platinum mine production at 120 000 kilograms in 2025, against a global total of about 170 000 kilograms. The same USGS review notes that South African PGM production fell by an estimated 9% in 2025 because of lower palladium prices, higher deep-level mining costs and electricity disruption. High prices, hard ground: The reality behind South Africa’s platinum moment By David Precious, Senior Market Analyst at EBC Financial Group
T he latest production and sales figures show why this discussion is current rather than theoretical. Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) reported that mining production rose 2.5% year-on-year in March 2026, with PGMs up 10.5% and contributing 2.6 percentage points. Mineral sales at current prices rose 30.2% year-on-year, with PGMs up 113.5% and contributing 21.0 percentage points. Those numbers show that stronger prices are feeding into the sector, although higher mineral sales do not automatically mean stronger export earnings or easier mining conditions. Price strength is real, but demand is uneven Platinum supply is expected to remain short of
demand because mine output remains constrained while industrial use and some investment demand continue to absorb available metal. The World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) expects a fourth consecutive annual platinum deficit in 2026, now estimated at 297 thousand ounces, with metal held in above-ground stockpiles projected to fall to 1 747 thousand ounces by year-end, enough to cover just under three months of demand. Demand is uneven because not every source of platinum buying is moving in the same direction. WPIC expects total demand to fall 9% year-on-year to 7 674 thousand ounces, despite 9% growth in industrial demand, as weaker jewellery demand and the absence of last year’s large buying through exchanges and exchange-traded funds
David Precious, Senior Market Analyst, EBC Financial Group.
12 MODERN MINING www.modernminingmagazine.co.za | JULY 2026
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