Grid-connected energy mix, 2024 (MW)
Energy mix target, 2030 (MW) Based on determinations from the 2023 update to the Integrated Resource Plan
360
600
626
1,376
63 664
Battery
Coal
3,833
Biomass
6,076
Distributed generation
5,225
Wind
1,840
Wind
Solar
5,825
40,320
3,605
Solar
Nuclear
19
Gas - Eskom
5,902
3,593
Hydro
45,042
Gas - IPP
7,911
Natural gas
BESS - IPP
11,300
Liquid fuels
Pumped storage
Coal
Nuclear
Dispatchable capacity
CSP
Hybrid IPP
BESS - Eskom
Hydro
Source: African Energy Live Data © African Energy 2024 (www.africa-energy.com)
Source: Department of Mineral Resources and Energy, IPPPP Quarterly Report, Integrated Resource plan 2023 (publ. Jan 2024)
sector and REIPPP solar. The plan anticipated that additions of new capacity will peak in 2026 with 8.6GW from wind and solar, with a further 18GW expected in the years to 2030, two-thirds of which would be added in 2027 and 2028. The overall EAP target is somewhat more than the total envisaged in the emerging plan from the Horizon One (2023-2030) analysis contained in the 2023 update to the IRP. This plan envisaged the addition of 29GW from the baseline 2023 installed capacity of about 60GW. The energy mix target in this plan is notable for the inclusion of about 7GW of natural gas-fired capacity, 3.6GW of solar PV, 4.5GW of wind, and a further 6.3GW of unspecified distributed generation capacity. While it also envisages a reduction of coal- fired capacity from 45GW to 40GW, this is still 7GW more than the total envisaged in the 2019 IRP. In the 2019 IRP, DMRE proposed shutting down over 10.5GW of coal generation by 2030 and 35GW by 2050 as part of the Just Energy Transition plan. While the intention remains, and renewable ambitions have vastly increased, it appears the decommissioning of existing generation will happen more slowly than first envisaged. The draft 2024 IRP proposes several updated scenarios for generation capacity, one of which is delayed shutdown of coal-fired generation. Despite all the efforts to add new generation capacity, the lack of grid connection capacity is
threatening the integration of more capacity to the grid. This problem is particularly acute in Northern, East and Western Cape supply areas preferred by developers for utility-scale wind projects. The lack of grid capacity has caused fewer projects to be tendered for under REIPPPP’s bid window five. In December 2022, 23 projects with a combined capacity of 4.1GW were excluded from the sixth bid window of the REIPPP because of grid exhaustion. REIPPP bid window 7 projects also remain at risk with new capacity reduced to 5GW. This is likely to be the subject of ongoing debate. Due to the dominance of coal, South Africa is one of the world’s major emitters of greenhouse gases (GHGs). The authorities plan to reduce economy- wide GHG emissions to around 350-440MtCO2e by 2030. To align the electricity sector with net zero targets, Eskom will need to find a way to accelerate the transition away from coal. According to one estimate, the utility requires approximately ZAR1.5tr to develop new energy infrastructure by 2030. Emerging from a financial crisis with large debts and limited ability to borrow from capital markets, it needs alternative solutions. Both Eskom and South Africa’s wider electricity generation sector will take their next steps in partnership with private enterprise and private finance.
South Africa’s Energy Prospects
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