Roof-top solar additions 2022–2024
6,500 6,000 5,500 5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 Jan-22 Apr-22 Jul-22 Oct-22 Jan-23 Apr-23 Jul-23 Oct-23 Jan-24 Apr-24 Jul-24 Oct-24 Jan-25
Source: Eskom data
But this is only part of the story. NTCSA’s grid survey shows that private sector development of renewable power for C&I offtake has – in the space of just two years – become a major driver of development. 44% of the 172GW pipeline revealed by the survey is represented by solar PV projects at various stages of development while wind projects comprise 28% of the list and battery projects 27%. The survey also shows that of the potential grid connections required by planned renewable energy IPPs, somewhat over one-third are being developed exclusively in the expectation of offtake via a Department of Mineral Resources and Energy (DMRE) IPP procurement programme. A further third are based on either DMRE or private sector offtake. The remainder are focused entirely on private sector or municipal offtake. First approved private projects start operating Already, some of the first private sector projects to be registered following the legislative changes have started operating. A 50MW project approved by Nersa in 2021 started operating in August 2022. Other early projects are making progress including a large wind energy facility in Mpumalanga and other behind-the-meter schemes. Some wheeling
projects have also gone ahead, including a solar PV plant in North West province which started despatching power to a private mining offtaker in April 2024, having begun construction in September 2022.
The future of embedded generation in South Africa
Where these projects have led, many more will follow. The options open to C&I offtakers anxious to ensure security of supply while also meeting their decarbonisation targets now range from installing rooftop solar, through to behind-the-meter utility scale solar systems, of battery energy storage systems (BESS) and wheeling. As of December 2024, Eskom estimated that 6.2GW of behind-the-meter rooftop solar capacity had been installed, up from about 2.5GW in July 2022. 2 This increase was buoyed by renewable energy and rooftop solar tax incentives and the energy bounce back loan scheme for small scale embedded generation, introduced in March and April 2023. Rooftop solar PV installation together with small-scale embedded generation now accounts for about 4% of South Africa’s electricity generation. The subsidies however exclude large- scale renewables.
2 Eskom Weekly Status Reports Week 9: www.ntcsa.co.za/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/Weekly_System_Status_Report_2025_w09.pdf
9
South Africa’s Energy Prospects
Made with FlippingBook - Share PDF online